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Vanity Fair News

    Prediction markets for Vanity Fair

    Who will endorse Yudkowsky and Soares' book?

    May 15, 11:06 AMDec 16, 11:45 AM
    17644362

    OptionProbability

    The Guardian

    Forbes

    CNN

    San Francisco Chronicle

    Max Tegmark

    Yoshua Bengio

    Vitalik Buterin

    The New Yorker

    Carl Feynman

    Emmett Shear

    Bruce Schneier

    George Church

    Scott Aaronson

    Daniel Kokotajlo

    Ben Bernanke

    Stephen Fry

    Tim Urban

    Grimes

    Scott Alexander

    Booklist

    Matthew Yglesias

    A former Fed Chair

    The Times

    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

    Publishers Weekly

    A professor of a Chinese university

    Ezra Klein

    A Science editorial

    Keach Hagey

    Neel Nanda

    Judea Pearl

    Eric Schmidt

    At least five Nobel laureates

    A former US Secretary of Treasury

    A former US Secretary of State

    Kurzgesagt

    The Washington Post

    The Economist

    Foreign Affairs

    Geoffrey Hinton

    Shane Legg

    Chris Olah

    Any five current members of the UK Parliament

    Christine Peterson

    Evan Hubinger

    A former US Secretary of Commerce

    CNN editorial

    A Scientific American editorial

    The New York Times Book Review

    Gillian Hadfield

    Daron Acemoglu

    Karen Hao

    Gwern

    roon

    Kevin Roose

    Billy Perrigo

    Telegraph

    NPR

    Politico

    Vox

    Rolling Stone

    A former US Secretary of Energy

    Helen Toner

    António Guterres

    Stuart Russell

    Nick Bostrom

    WIRED

    IEEE Spectrum

    Dario Amodei

    Financial Times

    Bloomberg Businessweek

    Time

    Mira Murati

    Peter Norvig

    John Schulman

    David Chalmers

    Dwarkesh Patel

    Patrick McKenzie

    Peter Singer

    Manifold

    Geoffrey Irving

    A review in The Atlantic

    A current Fed Chair

    A Nature editorial

    Elon Musk

    The Wall Street Journal

    Yuval Noah Harari

    Noam Chomsky

    A New Scientist editorial

    BBC

    Associated Press

    Ilya Sutskever

    Vanity Fair

    King Charles

    A high-ranking Chinese government official

    Toby Ord

    Greg Egan

    A current US Secretary of Treasury

    Jimmy Fallon

    Fox News

    A current US Secretary of Commerce

    Bill Gates

    Ray Kurzweil

    Demis Hassabis

    Anthropic

    Barack Obama

    JD Vance

    Reuters

    Mustafa Suleyman

    Joe Rogan

    A current US Secretary of Energy

    A current pope

    Satya Nadella

    Tim Cook

    Kamala Harris

    Terence Tao

    A current UK prime minister

    Ivanka Trump

    Tucker Carlson

    Tim Berners-Lee

    Ursula von der Leyen

    Daniela Amodei

    Any five current United States senators

    A current US Secretary of State

    Mr. Beast

    Benjamin Netanyahu

    RFK Jr

    Xi Jinping

    Richard Sutton

    John Oliver

    OpenAI

    DeepMind

    Donald J. Trump

    Sam Altman

    Yann LeCun

    Jeff Bezos

    Jensen Huang

    Bill Clinton

    Volodymyr Zelenskyy

    Vladimir Putin

    Peter Thiel

    Taylor Swift

    Lex Fridman

    Joe Biden

    JK Rowling

    Alexandr Wang

    Narendra Modi

    Kelsey Piper

    Any five current United States representatives

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    100

    50

    12

    12

    11

    11

    11

    11

    11

    11

    11

    11

    11

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    10

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    9

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    8

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    7

    6

    6

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    5

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    4

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    1

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1707

    640

    OptionVotes

    YES

    NO

    1807

    221

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