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Prediction markets for VAR

Will a COVID-19 variant cause a new scare and intermittent lockdowns in multiple countries by end 2025?

Jul 10, 3:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.12%chance

548919

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3415

700

Is MCU Dr. Doom a Tony Stark variant?

Jul 28, 5:23 AMNov 5, 5:59 AM

58.66%chance

262684

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

Will Roon's Tweet about various great minds discussing flops age well by 2027?

Dec 18, 1:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

46.2%chance

321275

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1247

507

Will the Variability Hypothesis be confirmed within humans before 2035?

Jan 25, 6:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.02%chance

6720

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

608

NCAA adds pickleball as a varsity sport before 2031

Jul 14, 7:55 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

39.13%chance

25700

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

961

Unspecified Stock Market Variable (ṀUSMV)

Jun 1, 7:55 PM

12668

OptionProbability

NO

YES

111

90

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?

Sep 8, 6:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.96%chance

9573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

372

367

Will Elon Musk create a parent company to consolidate his various business interests (e.g., Tesla, SpaceX, etc.) by 2027

Oct 17, 10:38 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

19.75%chance

16493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1131

940

Will the Komodo Dragon (Varanus komodoensis) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 7, 3:02 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.15%chance

5458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

693

292

Will the Premier League stop the use of VAR before 2030?

May 15, 4:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.06%chance

8183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

49

Will "X explains Z% of the variance in Y" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jun 27, 11:38 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.21%chance

266

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

764

Pickleball tournament uses variable paddle rules for mixed doubles

Oct 1, 6:15 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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