Variant News

Will a COVID-19 variant cause a new scare and intermittent lockdowns in multiple countries by end 2025?

Jul 10, 3:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.12%chance

548919

OptionVotes

YES

3415

700

Is the "Wolf and Sheep" chess variant a forced win for white?

Dec 18, 6:34 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

98.1%chance

145497

OptionVotes

YES

1658

896

Which Starship Variants will fly before 2028

Jan 11, 6:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

153301

OptionProbability

Pez Dispenser

Tanker

Human Landing System (HLS)

Chomper

Propellant Depot

Other

Mars Cargo

Mars Crew

100

Is MCU Dr. Doom a Tony Stark variant?

Jul 28, 5:23 AMNov 5, 5:59 AM

58.66%chance

262684

OptionVotes

YES

1191

840

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant Y?

Sep 8, 6:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.73%chance

8680

OptionVotes

YES

732

111

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?

Sep 8, 6:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.96%chance

9573

OptionVotes

YES

372

367

Conditional on release of an iPhone Ultra variant, what features will it have?

Nov 26, 6:21 AMDec 16, 7:59 AM

5411

OptionProbability

>= 6.85" display

>= 8x optical zoom

a Thunderbolt 4 or USB4 port

>= 3 high-performance cores

>= 130% mAh battery of next-tier iPhone

greater optical zoom than next-tier iPhone

more high-performance cores than next-tier iPhone

Special LLM capabilities (e.g. extra cache for LLM weights near a Neural Engine)

2 TB storage option

>= 1.5x RAM of next-tier iPhone

>= 12 GB RAM

>= 1.5x transistors of next-tier iPhone

>= 2 USB-C ports

officially supports a desktop-like experience when used with external displays (~same web app experience as MacOS Safari)

a Thunderbolt 3 port

a Quantum Random Number Generator (QRNG) chip

special LLM capabilities beyond next-tier iPhone. Just 2x inference volume wouldn't count.

split-screen multi-tasking

more external buttons than next-tier iPhone

Touch ID

officially supports dual-booting MacOS

If there is a Harry Potter crossover with Magic the Gathering, will there will be a serialized variant of Dumbledore?

Oct 20, 10:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

8291

OptionVotes

YES

125

Will the most used emoji on Bluesky at the end of 2025 be some variant of a laughing face?

Jun 1, 6:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51%chance

6121

OptionVotes

YES

102

Will vcf files be replaced with a more elegant way of representing SNPs/genetic variants by 2030?

Oct 5, 4:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.35%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

126

What is the probability of dying in Snake Eyes Variant NNN?

Jun 24, 6:58 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

339

OptionProbability

≥1/2

1/36

Undefined

Other

How many (total) parameters does the Claude3 Haiku (the smallest variant) have? (resolve to log_10(N))

Mar 30, 9:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

110

Variant News

Prediction markets for Variant

Prediction markets for Variant

Prediction markets for Variant

Will a COVID-19 variant cause a new scare and intermittent lockdowns in multiple countries by end 2025?

Is the "Wolf and Sheep" chess variant a forced win for white?

Which Starship Variants will fly before 2028

Is MCU Dr. Doom a Tony Stark variant?

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant Y?

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?

Conditional on release of an iPhone Ultra variant, what features will it have?

If there is a Harry Potter crossover with Magic the Gathering, will there will be a serialized variant of Dumbledore?

Will the most used emoji on Bluesky at the end of 2025 be some variant of a laughing face?

Will vcf files be replaced with a more elegant way of representing SNPs/genetic variants by 2030?

What is the probability of dying in Snake Eyes Variant NNN?

How many (total) parameters does the Claude3 Haiku (the smallest variant) have? (resolve to log_10(N))

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