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Prediction markets for VAS

Is there a vast complex of underground chambers and shafts extending nearly two kilometers under the pyramids?

Mar 23, 12:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.95%chance

218466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4931

204

Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2030?

May 10, 11:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.59%chance

15874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1273

873

Vasco Shot Stocks

May 10, 4:15 PMMay 10, 9:59 PM

12691

OptionProbability

NO

YES

316

155

Will Michael Vassar appear in the Epstein Files by 2029?

Nov 21, 5:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

98.26%chance

4670

OptionVotes

NO

YES

751

13

Will "Evil is bad, actually (Vassar and Olivia Scha..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 21, 5:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.16%chance

6643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1509

935

Will I have a fourth child before I get a vasectomy?

Dec 23, 7:53 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.54%chance

7366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

77

Will Vasant Narasimhan (CEO of Novartis) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 23, 5:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.31%chance

3267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

49

Vasco stocks

May 4, 12:33 AMMay 4, 3:59 AM

1100

OptionProbability

NO

YES

150

17

Will Michael Vassar's child be diagnosed as having Asperger's by 2030?

Sep 11, 12:17 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.03%chance

235

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

48

Will a Greater Vasa Parrot be confirmed to have a speaking vocabulary size of > 150 words by 2030?

Sep 14, 10:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.25%chance

230

OptionVotes

YES

NO

75

65

Will Michael Vassar get unbanned from EAG by 2040?

Feb 11, 5:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

39.92%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

97

70+ page biography of Michael Vassar by 2030

Apr 23, 5:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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