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Prediction markets for Vast Space

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.08%chance

8138437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

27819

3071

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.07%chance

193036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3171

316

Dark matter used as reaction mass by spacecraft before 2100

Nov 17, 7:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.51%chance

201005

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1262

948

Will Haven-1 launch in 2026 or earlier?

May 19, 9:33 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

3.98%chance

6719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

740

37

Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2030?

May 10, 11:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.45%chance

15674

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

951

Which biotech scaleup will have the largest market cap in 2030?

Mar 8, 6:05 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

11599

OptionProbability

Twist Bioscience

Recursion Pharmaceuticals

10x genomics

Ginkgo Bioworks

40

34

20

9

Will Haven-1 launch in 2028 or earlier?

May 19, 9:34 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

94.55%chance

3181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

208

12

Will Haven-1 launch in 2027 or earlier?

May 19, 9:34 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

94.14%chance

5170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

12

Will Project Hail Mary score at least 90% on Rotten Tomatoes?

Jan 21, 7:15 PMMar 20, 11:59 PM

59.88%chance

10134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

320

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