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Prediction markets for Vast Space

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29364

2889

Will there be a lethal disaster during the Artemis II mission?

Jan 14, 11:17 PMApr 1, 12:59 AM

7.45%chance

6823882

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3524

284

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.58%chance

193559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2640

380

Dark matter used as reaction mass by spacecraft before 2100

Nov 17, 7:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.59%chance

211006

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1248

949

Will Haven-1 launch in 2026 or earlier?

May 19, 9:33 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

2.37%chance

6969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

990

29

Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2030?

May 10, 11:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.59%chance

15874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1273

873

Which biotech scaleup will have the largest market cap in 2030?

Mar 8, 6:05 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

11599

OptionProbability

Twist Bioscience

Recursion Pharmaceuticals

10x genomics

Ginkgo Bioworks

40

34

20

9

Will Haven-1 launch in 2027 or earlier?

May 19, 9:34 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

51%chance

8226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

51

49

Will Haven-1 launch in 2028 or earlier?

May 19, 9:34 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

94.55%chance

3181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

208

12

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

320

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