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Prediction markets for Vast Space

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33264

2509

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.04%chance

264557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3638

276

Dark matter used as reaction mass by spacecraft before 2100

Nov 17, 7:29 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.46%chance

221256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1498

933

When will Haven-2 launch?

Mar 28, 3:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41225

OptionProbability

2030

2031

2032

2029

Later than 2032/never

2028

2027

2026

31

16

14

13

11

10

3

3

Will Haven-1 launch in 2026 or earlier?

May 19, 9:33 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

2.37%chance

6969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

990

29

Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2030?

May 10, 11:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.59%chance

15874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1273

873

Which biotech scaleup will have the largest market cap in 2030?

Mar 8, 6:05 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

11599

OptionProbability

Twist Bioscience

Recursion Pharmaceuticals

10x genomics

Ginkgo Bioworks

40

34

20

9

Will Haven-1 launch in 2027 or earlier?

May 19, 9:34 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

51%chance

8226

OptionVotes

NO

YES

51

49

Will Haven-1 launch in 2028 or earlier?

May 19, 9:34 AMJan 1, 12:59 AM

94.55%chance

3181

OptionVotes

NO

YES

208

12

Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?

Apr 7, 12:55 PM

320

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