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Prediction markets for Vault

How far will Armand Duplantis take the pole vault world record?

Aug 6, 11:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

1510359

OptionProbability

>6.30

6.30

6.25 (record at time of market creation)

6.26

6.27

6.28

6.29

91

6

1

1

1

1

1

Will a quantum computer prove capable of breaking 2048 bit RSA encryption by 2030?

Sep 25, 8:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.95%chance

424571

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

811

In what year will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed?

Jun 21, 6:02 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

62678

OptionProbability

2025-2026

2027-2028

2029-2030

2031-2032

2033-2034

2035-2036

2037-2038

2039-2040

40

38

4

4

4

4

4

2

Will Germany withdraw its gold from US vaults?

Jan 25, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.64%chance

161017

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1578

634

Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?

Feb 29, 1:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32930

OptionProbability

1password

Bitwarden

57

43

Will the Trump administration's floor price for cerium under Project Vault exceed 6 USD/kg when announced?

Feb 6, 4:38 PMFeb 13, 4:38 PM

40.85%chance

5305

OptionVotes

YES

NO

212

185

Will the Trump administration's floor price for samarium 3N exceed $60 / kg in Project Vault when announced?

Feb 6, 4:38 PMFeb 13, 4:38 PM

67.5%chance

4167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

277

148

How far will Armand Duplantis take the pole vault world record? (6.30m-6.40m+)

Sep 16, 12:26 AMJan 2, 1:26 AM

4134

OptionProbability

6.35

6.34

6.36

6.40 or greater

6.32

6.33

6.37

6.31

6.38

6.30 (world record at time of market creation)

6.39

12

11

11

11

10

10

9

8

7

6

5

Will the Trump administration's floor price for indium exceed $800 / kg for Project Vault when announced?

Feb 6, 4:38 PMFeb 13, 4:38 PM

46.21%chance

468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

191

Exit valuation of VaultPay (YC S23)?

Sep 14, 6:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

240

OptionProbability

Less than $10M or bankrupt

$10M - $100M

$100M - $1B

$1B+

60

14

14

11

Quroe's Mana Vault

Nov 24, 12:44 AM

00

Which 1989 TV vault track is the best?

Oct 27, 5:09 AM

50

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