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Prediction markets for VC

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.86%chance

373118132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2394

418

Will any Atlas Fellow have a liquid net worth >100M by 2030?

Dec 22, 1:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.04%chance

5711861

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1541

726

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.89%chance

338786

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

872

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

65.64%chance

18725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

839

What will be the next major event for Wiz?

May 9, 5:16 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

2720

OptionProbability

Purchase by another company

IPO

Bankruptcy

None of these by 2030

99

0

0

0

What will be the next major event for Character.ai?

Jan 16, 3:00 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

14452

OptionProbability

Purchase by another company

Bankruptcy

IPO

None of these by 2030

81

11

5

2

Will biopharma VC funding in one year have exceeded $100 billion USD by 2030?

Mar 1, 3:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.92%chance

12366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

956

Is a major silicon valley VC fund involved in pederasty?

Nov 20, 8:07 AMDec 31, 12:58 PM

37.59%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

316

191

Will the VC 50 Years meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3?

Sep 21, 8:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.37%chance

256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

45

Will vcf files be replaced with a more elegant way of representing SNPs/genetic variants by 2030?

Oct 5, 4:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.35%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

97

claude mcp for genome variant calling (or interacting with one's vcf/fastq files) by EOY2026?

Mar 2, 5:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Will 1517 fund have above-average fund performance (for a VC fund) by EOY2029?

Feb 26, 12:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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