VC News

Who will be TIME Person of the Year 2025?

Sep 8, 4:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10091545

OptionProbability

Anyone or anything strongly associated with AI (Sam Altman, ChatGPT, Claude, “AI”, “LLM”, “H100”, etc)

Prominent politician, judge or military leader of any country (former or current). Includes unrecognized territories such as Gaza or ISIS.

Prominent civil activist or religious leader (Snowden, Assange, Greta, Dalai-Lama, The Pope)

Other / anything or anyone not included in other answers (“Freedom Fighters”, “You”, “American Soldier”, etc)

Prominent businessman, VC, investor, CEO or chairman of a board

Prominent artist (actor, musician, writer), influencer (MrBeast, etc), journalist, athlete, chess or poker player

Prominent scientist, academic or inventor (not including AI researchers)

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Dec 27, 8:16 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

70.31%chance

11853527

OptionVotes

YES

1539

650

Will the AI bubble pop in 2025?

Aug 12, 5:49 PMDec 31, 3:19 PM

5.44%chance

7222778

OptionVotes

YES

4170

240

Will any Atlas Fellow have a liquid net worth >100M by 2030?

Dec 22, 1:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.33%chance

5711789

OptionVotes

YES

1613

706

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.31%chance

296967

OptionVotes

YES

1324

755

Will SpaceX reach $450B valuation in the next year?

Dec 11, 10:39 PMDec 15, 9:59 PM

63.54%chance

161910

OptionVotes

YES

132

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

65.64%chance

18725

OptionVotes

YES

1056

839

Will biopharma VC funding in one year have exceeded $100 billion USD by 2030?

Mar 1, 3:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.92%chance

12366

OptionVotes

YES

1067

956

Will the VC 50 Years meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3?

Sep 21, 8:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.48%chance

155

OptionVotes

YES

125

Will vcf files be replaced with a more elegant way of representing SNPs/genetic variants by 2030?

Oct 5, 4:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.35%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

126

Is a major silicon valley VC fund involved in pederasty?

Nov 20, 8:07 AMDec 31, 12:58 PM

47.83%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

256

236

claude mcp for genome variant calling (or interacting with one's vcf/fastq files) by EOY2026?

Mar 2, 5:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

VC News

Prediction markets for VC

Prediction markets for VC

Prediction markets for VC

Who will be TIME Person of the Year 2025?

5. Multiple serious efforts to put AI data centers in space will take shape.

Will the AI bubble pop in 2025?

Will any Atlas Fellow have a liquid net worth >100M by 2030?

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Will SpaceX reach $450B valuation in the next year?

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Will biopharma VC funding in one year have exceeded $100 billion USD by 2030?

Will the VC 50 Years meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3?

Will vcf files be replaced with a more elegant way of representing SNPs/genetic variants by 2030?

Is a major silicon valley VC fund involved in pederasty?

claude mcp for genome variant calling (or interacting with one's vcf/fastq files) by EOY2026?

Latest stories