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Prediction markets for VC

Will any Atlas Fellow have a liquid net worth >100M by 2030?

Dec 22, 1:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.33%chance

5711789

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1613

706

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

4710036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1884

531

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.63%chance

317489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

829

What will be the next major event for Stripe?

Jan 21, 8:44 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

15960

OptionProbability

IPO

None of these by 2030

Purchase by another company

Bankruptcy

85

6

4

4

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

65.64%chance

18725

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1056

839

Will biopharma VC funding in one year have exceeded $100 billion USD by 2030?

Mar 1, 3:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.92%chance

12366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

956

Will VC interest in manufacturing decrease in 2026?

Jan 10, 5:25 PMDec 31, 5:22 PM

73.13%chance

277

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

61

What will be the next major event for NSO group?

Feb 6, 3:12 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

460

OptionProbability

Purchase by another company

Bankruptcy

IPO

None of these by 2030

65

12

11

11

Will the VC 50 Years meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3?

Sep 21, 8:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.48%chance

155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

44

Will vcf files be replaced with a more elegant way of representing SNPs/genetic variants by 2030?

Oct 5, 4:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.35%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

97

claude mcp for genome variant calling (or interacting with one's vcf/fastq files) by EOY2026?

Mar 2, 5:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.02%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

120

83

Is a major silicon valley VC fund involved in pederasty?

Nov 20, 8:07 AMDec 31, 12:58 PM

47.83%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

256

236

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