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Prediction markets for VC

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Dec 28, 5:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.3%chance

425145826

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2803

357

OpenAI reaches $100B revenue in 2028?

Oct 15, 10:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.96%chance

4110178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2066

486

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

74.18%chance

221238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

937

Will biopharma VC funding in one year have exceeded $100 billion USD by 2030?

Mar 1, 3:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.92%chance

12366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

956

claude mcp for genome variant calling (or interacting with one's vcf/fastq files) by EOY2026?

Mar 2, 5:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

93.18%chance

3272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

370

27

Is a major silicon valley VC fund involved in pederasty?

Nov 20, 8:07 AMDec 31, 12:58 PM

37.59%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

316

191

Will the VC 50 Years meaningfully affect p(doom) by more than 3?

Sep 21, 8:57 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.37%chance

256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

45

Will vcf files be replaced with a more elegant way of representing SNPs/genetic variants by 2030?

Oct 5, 4:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.35%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

126

97

Will Ngô "crazyguy" Công Anh be poached by GAM Esports for VCT 2027 Kickoff?

Oct 25, 6:06 AMJan 23, 2:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will Persist Ventures (jack-jay-jackson-jesionowski/) return more than average for a VC by 2036?

May 21, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will https://x.com/maxxyung11 and Daniel Burger both raise from the same VC by EOY2028?

Aug 9, 12:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will 1517 fund have above-average fund performance (for a VC fund) by EOY2029?

Feb 26, 12:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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