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Prediction markets for Venture

Will Alex Jones start a new media venture within 2 years of Infowars being shut down?

Jun 29, 5:51 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

98.67%chance

119004

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8622

116

Will OpenPhil or a related entity (eg Effective Ventures) sue OpenAI over corporate restructuring by end of 2025?

Sep 26, 9:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.15%chance

182023

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2054

487

Will I get an emergent ventures grant?

Oct 31, 7:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.3%chance

14634

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1187

696

Will there be a joint venture chip foundry between TSMC and Intel? 🇺🇸🦾🤖💻

Feb 13, 4:34 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

48.29%chance

13514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

Will any past/current student from the University of Washington Robinson Center (University of Washington early entrance program & UW Academy for Young Scholars) win a Thiel Fellowship OR an Emergent Ventures grant by the end of 2027?

Apr 20, 10:44 PMNov 1, 8:01 AM

32.43%chance

329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

95

Will Sid Mani (ftlsid.com) win an Emergent Ventures fellowship by EOY 2025?

Dec 25, 6:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

32.32%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

95

53

Will AJ Kourabi win an emergent ventures (EV) grant by EOY 2026?

Jan 1, 2:32 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.83%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

85

58

Will Mia Aiyana Cardenas (TKS=>NYU) win emergent ventures by EOY 2025?

Nov 12, 6:08 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

36.98%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

85

58

Will George of (https://epistem.ink/) win an emergent ventures (EV) grant by EOY 2025?

Dec 10, 10:07 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.98%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

65

38

Will Peggy Yin (Harvard, Conflux, Augmentation Lab) win Emergent Ventures by EOY 2030?

Aug 25, 2:29 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.39%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will Sigil Wen win an emergent ventures grant by EOY 2026?

Dec 10, 9:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.09%chance

03

OptionVotes

YES

NO

53

47

Will Willy Chertman win an Emergent Ventures fellowship before 2027?

Apr 20, 6:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.04%chance

12

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52

48

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