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Prediction markets for Venture Capital

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.06%chance

5716388

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1784

561

Will Marc Andreessen start a new company (not an investment firm) by 2026?

Dec 6, 11:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.26%chance

87923

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6572

152

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Oct 16, 9:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

337916

OptionProbability

Other

2026 [Oct-Dec]

2027 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Jul-Sep]

2026 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Apr-Jun]

2025 [Oct-Dec]

84

4

4

3

2

2

1

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.9%chance

316987

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4412

227

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

325852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

735

Will I launch a startup by the end of 2026?

Jun 18, 3:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.7%chance

251636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1730

753

Will Chris Burniske (partner at Placeholder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 18, 1:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.14%chance

5519

OptionVotes

YES

NO

275

103

Will biopharma VC funding in one year have exceeded $100 billion USD by 2030?

Mar 1, 3:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.92%chance

12366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

956

Will "Church Planting: When Venture Capital Finds Jesus" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 3:14 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.86%chance

2250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

881

Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?

May 19, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.27%chance

9157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Which acquired improv theatre will be dumped first?

Feb 11, 1:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1140

OptionProbability

iO

Second City

UCB

None, these will be the first-ever private equity acquisitions to thrive

32

32

32

3

Will https://www.tetsuwan.com/ Series A by EOY2028?

May 15, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.96%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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