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Prediction markets for Venture Capital

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.88%chance

4411762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1497

669

Will Marc Andreessen start a new company (not an investment firm) by 2026?

Dec 6, 11:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.23%chance

87880

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6615

151

Will Manifold be profitable before 2030?

Apr 14, 8:41 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

29.61%chance

635374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

273

53

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.04%chance

264557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3638

276

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.89%chance

253805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

922

Will Manifold be profitable before 2040?

Apr 14, 8:50 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

56.62%chance

472946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

411

80

Will I launch a startup by the end of 2026?

Jun 18, 3:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25%chance

231085

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

870

Will Chris Burniske (partner at Placeholder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 18, 1:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.14%chance

5519

OptionVotes

YES

NO

275

103

Will biopharma VC funding in one year have exceeded $100 billion USD by 2030?

Mar 1, 3:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.92%chance

12366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

956

Will "Church Planting: When Venture Capital Finds Jesus" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 3:14 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.86%chance

2250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

881

Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?

May 19, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.2%chance

7145

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Is Floyd Mayweather Broke? 🥊💰🤑💵💸

Mar 8, 2:45 PMDec 31, 2:41 PM

77%chance

3126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

55

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