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Prediction markets for Venture Capital

Will Marc Andreessen start a new company (not an investment firm) by 2026?

Dec 6, 11:57 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.7%chance

86899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7596

132

[Granular] When Will the AI Bubble Pop?

Oct 16, 9:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

326314

OptionProbability

Other

2026 [Jul-Sep]

2026 [Oct-Dec]

2027 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Jan-Mar]

2026 [Apr-Jun]

2025 [Oct-Dec]

72

6

6

6

5

5

1

1. Anthropic will go public. OpenAI will not.

Dec 28, 11:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.56%chance

265578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1545

648

Will Manifold be profitable before 2030?

Apr 14, 8:41 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

29.61%chance

635374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

273

53

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.44%chance

213540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1033

971

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.07%chance

193036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3171

316

Will Manifold be profitable before 2040?

Apr 14, 8:50 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

56.62%chance

472946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

411

80

Will Moltbook survive through feb 2026?

Jan 31, 2:10 PMMar 1, 2:06 PM

90.62%chance

281177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

311

32

Will I launch a startup by the end of 2026?

Jun 18, 3:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.04%chance

19864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1499

808

Will Chris Burniske (partner at Placeholder) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 18, 1:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.14%chance

5519

OptionVotes

YES

NO

275

103

Will biopharma VC funding in one year have exceeded $100 billion USD by 2030?

Mar 1, 3:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

69.92%chance

12366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

956

Will "Church Planting: When Venture Capital Finds Jesus" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 3:14 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.64%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

971

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