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Prediction markets for Venture Fund

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

325852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

735

Will the AI bubble pop before 2028?

Feb 12, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.37%chance

404076

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1551

645

Will micro-nations become the new startups by 2030?

Jan 27, 12:06 PMFeb 4, 4:59 AM

12.75%chance

241955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1148

946

Yann LeCun's new AI startup reaches $100M+ valuation by end of 2027?

Nov 20, 8:19 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

68.89%chance

261921

OptionVotes

NO

YES

149

67

Will I launch a startup by the end of 2026?

Jun 18, 3:45 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

17.7%chance

251636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1730

753

By 2034, what is the probability that a dollar donated to Daffy will be used for unintended purposes?

Mar 9, 12:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.31%chance

5490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

588

78

Will Coefficient Giving (formerly Open Philanthropy) direct ≥$1.5B in grants in 2026?

Jul 21, 2:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.46%chance

11431

OptionVotes

NO

YES

308

32

Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?

Jul 3, 9:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

40%chance

3408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

910

Will Perplexity become profitable by EOY 2027?

May 19, 12:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.27%chance

9157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

236

42

Is Floyd Mayweather Broke? 🥊💰🤑💵💸

Mar 8, 2:45 PMDec 31, 2:41 PM

77%chance

3126

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

55

Will Jaival Patel win a Thiel Fellowship, Emergent Ventures, Brains Fellows, or Flux Capacitor funding by 2030?

Jun 10, 12:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will https://www.tetsuwan.com/ Series A by EOY2028?

May 15, 1:20 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51.96%chance

14

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

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