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Prediction markets for Ventures

Will Alex Jones start a new media venture within 2 years of Infowars being shut down?

Jun 29, 5:51 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

57.94%chance

1317379

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1242

901

Will I get an emergent ventures grant?

Oct 31, 7:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.06%chance

161009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

955

Will Dustin Moskovitz (Facebook, Open Philanthropy, Good Ventures) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Jan 15, 5:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.76%chance

6634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

332

131

Will ExxonMobil or ConocoPhillips officially announce a new joint venture or production agreement in Venezuela in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

4239

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

50

Will "Church Planting: When Venture Capital Finds Jesus" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 3:14 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.64%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

971

Will @sanjehorah win an emergent ventures fellowship by EOY2028?

Dec 25, 8:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

1102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will any past/current student from the University of Washington Robinson Center (University of Washington early entrance program & UW Academy for Young Scholars) win a Thiel Fellowship OR an Emergent Ventures grant by the end of 2027?

Apr 20, 10:44 PMNov 1, 8:01 AM

32.43%chance

329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

95

Will Jaival Patel win a Thiel Fellowship, Emergent Ventures, Brains Fellows, or Flux Capacitor funding by 2030?

Jun 10, 12:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will Patrick Finley win an Emergent Ventures grant?

Jan 12, 8:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.7%chance

320

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

110

Will Viraj Chhajed (aka Viraj Cz) win emergent ventures (EV) by EOY 2026?

Jan 1, 4:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.98%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

65

38

Will Ada Nguyen win emergent ventures grant by EOY 2030?

Aug 25, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.39%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will yoyo @indiraschka win an emergent ventures fellowship

Jul 24, 4:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.73%chance

17

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

94

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