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Prediction markets for Ventures

Will I get an emergent ventures grant?

Oct 31, 7:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.06%chance

161009

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1071

955

Will "Church Planting: When Venture Capital Finds Jesus" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 3:14 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.86%chance

2250

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

881

Will Arnav Shah win EITHER an Emergent Ventures or Thiel Fellowship by 2028?

Apr 21, 10:24 AMApr 29, 6:59 AM

35.17%chance

550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

88

Will Zan Huang (at UMich) win Emergent Ventures by EOY 2026?

Jan 3, 12:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.5%chance

340

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

48

Will any past/current student from the University of Washington Robinson Center (University of Washington early entrance program & UW Academy for Young Scholars) win a Thiel Fellowship OR an Emergent Ventures grant by the end of 2027?

Apr 20, 10:44 PMNov 1, 8:01 AM

32.43%chance

329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

95

Will Jaival Patel win a Thiel Fellowship, Emergent Ventures, Brains Fellows, or Flux Capacitor funding by 2030?

Jun 10, 12:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.98%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

120

83

Will Jack Ceroni win an emergent ventures by EOY 2026?

Dec 18, 6:32 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.98%chance

115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

65

38

Will yoyo @indiraschka win an emergent ventures fellowship

Jul 24, 4:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

46.73%chance

17

OptionVotes

YES

NO

107

94

Will Logan Collins win an emergent ventures fellowship

Jan 23, 5:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

45%chance

05

OptionVotes

YES

NO

55

45

Will some1 from University of Washington's "early entrance program/UW Academy"/RC win Emergent Ventures by 2030?

Sep 21, 8:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45%chance

05

OptionVotes

YES

NO

55

45

Will Sigil Wen win an emergent ventures grant by EOY 2026?

Dec 10, 9:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.09%chance

03

OptionVotes

YES

NO

53

47

Will Willy Chertman win an Emergent Ventures fellowship before 2027?

Apr 20, 6:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.04%chance

12

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52

48

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