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Prediction markets for Ventures

Will Alex Jones start a new media venture within 2 years of Infowars being shut down?

Jun 29, 5:51 AMJul 7, 4:59 AM

57.94%chance

1317379

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1242

901

Will ExxonMobil or ConocoPhillips officially announce a new joint venture or production agreement in Venezuela in 2026?

Jan 3, 7:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80%chance

4239

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

50

Will "Church Planting: When Venture Capital Finds Jesus" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 22, 3:14 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.64%chance

1200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1200

971

Will @sanjehorah win an emergent ventures fellowship by EOY2028?

Dec 25, 8:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50%chance

1102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Bryce H generate at least $1 in PROFIT from entrepreneurial ventures?

Jan 3, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.13%chance

377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

61

Will any past/current student from the University of Washington Robinson Center (University of Washington early entrance program & UW Academy for Young Scholars) win a Thiel Fellowship OR an Emergent Ventures grant by the end of 2027?

Apr 20, 10:44 PMNov 1, 8:01 AM

32.43%chance

329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

95

Will Patrick Finley win an Emergent Ventures grant?

Jan 12, 8:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.7%chance

320

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

110

Will Ada Nguyen win emergent ventures grant by EOY 2030?

Aug 25, 2:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.39%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will Logan Collins win an emergent ventures fellowship

Jan 23, 5:59 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

45%chance

05

OptionVotes

YES

NO

55

45

Will some1 from University of Washington's "early entrance program/UW Academy"/RC win Emergent Ventures by 2030?

Sep 21, 8:42 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45%chance

05

OptionVotes

YES

NO

55

45

Will Sigil Wen win an emergent ventures grant by EOY 2026?

Dec 10, 9:58 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.09%chance

03

OptionVotes

YES

NO

53

47

Will Willy Chertman win an Emergent Ventures fellowship before 2027?

Apr 20, 6:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.04%chance

12

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52

48

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