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VES News

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

57.92%chance

5215118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1716

1276

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030?

Oct 16, 2:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

58.47%chance

152050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

34

Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?

Jun 10, 2:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.38%chance

201115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1184

844

Will The Vessel in NYC stay open for at least 6 months after the reopening?

Apr 14, 10:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

90.37%chance

5734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

855

113

@yacineMTB gets vested equity from x?

Jun 22, 12:27 AMDec 30, 11:21 PM

15.34%chance

6329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

45

What works will be discovered in the Herculaneum library? (Vesuvius Challenge)

Mar 13, 5:21 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

7250

OptionProbability

Augustus's Autobiography

Any (New) Complete Poem from Sappho

Any New Prose Work from Aristotle

The Babylonians (Aristophanes lost play)

Claudius's History of Carthage

Ptolemy's biography of Alexander

Claudius's History of the Etruscans

The Cypria

Ovid's Medea

51

50

46

41

40

40

35

33

29

The next time Mt Vesuvius erupts, will 100 or more people die?

Aug 3, 5:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.08%chance

7220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

42

Will Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030?

Jul 2, 6:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.49%chance

7181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

119

Will China cause damage requiring drydock repair to a vessel between Jan 1 and June 30, 2026?

Dec 5, 1:24 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

19.52%chance

8147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

203

49

Is Magpie Arrow a vessel for TITAN?

Apr 1, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Which European countries will deploy naval vessels to the Pacific in 2024 and/or 2025?

Jan 17, 9:12 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

658

OptionProbability

Russia

UK

France

Italy

Germany

Spain

Poland

Netherlands

Norway

Greece

Denmark

Portugal

Turkey

Belgium

100

100

100

100

64

60

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

24

Will any military vessel of more than 15,000 tonnes be lost at sea before 2036?

May 23, 9:27 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

53%chance

635

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

127

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