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Prediction markets for VES

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

59.35%chance

5315168

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1681

1326

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030?

Oct 16, 2:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

77.89%chance

162100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

84

Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?

Jun 10, 2:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.51%chance

211148

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1140

877

What works will be discovered in the Herculaneum library? (Vesuvius Challenge)

Mar 13, 5:21 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8251

OptionProbability

Any (New) Complete Poem from Sappho

Augustus's Autobiography

Any New Prose Work from Aristotle

The Babylonians (Aristophanes lost play)

Claudius's History of Carthage

Ptolemy's biography of Alexander

Claudius's History of the Etruscans

The Cypria

Ovid's Medea

50

50

46

41

40

40

35

33

29

Will Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030?

Jul 2, 6:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.41%chance

9221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

269

114

The next time Mt Vesuvius erupts, will 100 or more people die?

Aug 3, 5:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.08%chance

7220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

42

Will China cause damage requiring drydock repair to a vessel between Jan 1 and June 30, 2026?

Dec 5, 1:24 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

21.16%chance

8157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

193

52

Will China state vessels (e.g., CCG) board a commercial cargo ship heading to Taiwan's main island before 2027?

Mar 29, 1:43 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

36.55%chance

9152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132

76

Which European countries will deploy naval vessels to the Pacific in 2026 and/or 2027?

Jan 13, 4:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3109

OptionProbability

Russia

UK

France

Netherlands

Germany

Italy

Spain

Denmark

Turkey

Portugal

Norway

Belgium

Greece

Poland

100

100

100

72

66

66

50

50

50

43

36

34

31

24

Is Magpie Arrow a vessel for TITAN?

Apr 1, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will a vessel be launched to test MOND vs Lambda-CDM model before 2035?

Aug 6, 6:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25%chance

689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

129

Will any military vessel of more than 15,000 tonnes be lost at sea before 2036?

May 23, 9:27 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

53%chance

635

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

127

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