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Prediction markets for VES

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least one known lost work (>= 1k words) by 2030?

Oct 15, 11:17 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

91.47%chance

5013718

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4838

836

Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030?

Oct 16, 2:31 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

89.78%chance

141950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

206

Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?

Jun 10, 2:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

58.44%chance

191114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1186

843

@yacineMTB gets vested equity from x?

Jun 22, 12:27 AMDec 30, 11:21 PM

15.34%chance

6329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

45

The next time Mt Vesuvius erupts, will 100 or more people die?

Aug 3, 5:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.08%chance

7220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

42

Will Mount Vesuvius erupt before 2030?

Jul 2, 6:26 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.49%chance

7181

OptionVotes

YES

NO

229

119

Will we get synthetic blood vessels before 2035?

Jun 23, 10:55 AMMar 5, 10:59 PM

75.59%chance

5152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

176

57

What works will be discovered in the Herculaneum library? (Vesuvius Challenge)

Mar 13, 5:21 PMDec 21, 4:59 AM

5148

OptionProbability

Any New Prose Work from Aristotle

Any (New) Complete Poem from Sappho

Ptolemy's biography of Alexander

Augustus's Autobiography

Claudius's History of the Etruscans

Claudius's History of Carthage

Ovid's Medea

The Babylonians (Aristophanes lost play)

The Cypria

76

61

59

57

52

52

43

41

41

Is Magpie Arrow a vessel for TITAN?

Apr 1, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

50

Will a vessel be launched to test MOND vs Lambda-CDM model before 2035?

Aug 6, 6:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25%chance

689

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

129

Which European countries will deploy naval vessels to the Pacific in 2024 and/or 2025?

Jan 17, 9:12 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

658

OptionProbability

Russia

UK

France

Italy

Germany

Spain

Poland

Netherlands

Norway

Greece

Denmark

Portugal

Turkey

Belgium

100

100

100

100

64

60

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

24

Will any military vessel of more than 15,000 tonnes be lost at sea before 2036?

May 23, 9:27 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

53%chance

635

OptionVotes

NO

YES

133

127

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