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Prediction markets for Vibe Code

Will Elon flip parties again before 2033?

Apr 18, 3:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.82%chance

273669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2011

497

Will a single model have all the upsides o1-style RL with none of the downsides at 2027?

Nov 20, 5:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60.14%chance

11872

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1228

814

Vibe-coding software reaches 100M+ MAU (summed across all platforms) by 2026 EOY?

Oct 22, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.75%chance

5670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1614

620

Will I automate Vanguard rebalancing with an AI agent by 2026?

Jan 17, 7:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.13%chance

6605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

954

180

How long until someone vibe codes a robot that accidentally kills them?

May 2, 8:47 AMDec 31, 10:23 PM

16510

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

41

32

25

8

4

By 2028, will any coding copilot look more like "pairing with an LLM" than "smart autocomplete"?

Oct 5, 4:35 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

90.97%chance

9376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

386

144

Will my vibe-coded Kalshi algorithm be profitable?

Jan 1, 10:21 AMDec 31, 10:18 AM

40%chance

13299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

How will my vibe-coded rewrite of a SoTA genomics program perform?

Jan 7, 9:14 PMMay 5, 7:47 PM

17268

OptionProbability

More than 3% worse, less than 10% worse

More than 10% worse

Within 3%, better or worse

Re-write is too non-functional to compute accuracy

More than 3% better

32

28

17

12

11

Will it be possible to vibe code a Grand Theft Auto-scope+style game "in a few minutes" before GTA 6 releases?

Jan 13, 12:44 AMNov 19, 11:59 PM

2.35%chance

6190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

96

Which vibe coding IDE will I prefer using at the end of March?

Mar 14, 7:10 PMMar 31, 6:30 PM

5126

OptionProbability

Codex

OpenCode

Antigravity

Cursor

41

33

18

8

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Jan 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.21%chance

4115

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

47

Where do you expect Rust to rank among programming languages for “vibe coding” in 2027?

Jan 20, 9:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50

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