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Prediction markets for Vibe Code

Will Elon flip parties again before 2033?

Apr 18, 3:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.81%chance

283670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2012

497

Will a single model have all the upsides o1-style RL with none of the downsides at 2027?

Nov 20, 5:32 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

68.48%chance

133603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1474

678

Words of the Year 2026 🥇📝

Dec 28, 6:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

152264

OptionProbability

regime change

imperial overreach

agentic

looksmaxxing

dwerking

lowkenuinely

appeasement

clanker

delegated self

diddyblud

model drift

certified human

synthetic

aura farming

55

50

45

42

41

33

25

22

18

18

17

17

17

10

Vibe-coding software reaches 100M+ MAU (summed across all platforms) by 2026 EOY?

Oct 22, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.75%chance

5670

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1095

101

Will I automate Vanguard rebalancing with an AI agent by 2026?

Jan 17, 7:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.13%chance

6605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

954

180

How long until someone vibe codes a robot that accidentally kills them?

May 2, 8:47 AMDec 31, 10:23 PM

16510

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2029

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before 2026

41

32

25

8

4

By 2028, will any coding copilot look more like "pairing with an LLM" than "smart autocomplete"?

Oct 5, 4:35 AMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

90.97%chance

9376

OptionVotes

NO

YES

386

144

Will my vibe-coded Kalshi algorithm be profitable?

Jan 1, 10:21 AMDec 31, 10:18 AM

40%chance

13299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will it be possible to vibe code a Grand Theft Auto-scope+style game "in a few minutes" before GTA 6 releases?

Jan 13, 12:44 AMNov 19, 11:59 PM

2.35%chance

6190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

210

96

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Jan 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.31%chance

5118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

202

50

Will I do something interesting this week according to me

May 6, 4:13 AMMay 11, 4:12 AM

63.02%chance

885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

77

Where do you expect Rust to rank among programming languages for “vibe coding” in 2027?

Jan 20, 9:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60

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