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Prediction markets for View

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.39%chance

2112795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13866

3633

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

32.03%chance

446996

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1495

626

Sora app reaches 50 billion daily views by end of 2026?

Oct 1, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.08%chance

193366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3623

276

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 2B views before 2027?

Jan 18, 8:48 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

10.19%chance

202644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1748

832

Will AI write 75%+ of social media view-generating posts (default to Twitter) by EOY 2026?

Oct 22, 2:56 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.52%chance

292144

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1828

872

Will the first Manifold market to reach 1 million views have 10,000 or more traders before it reaches 1 million views?

Feb 17, 5:23 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

44%chance

162098

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1153

856

In 2028, Will a >5 min video completely generated by an AI have more than 1 billion views on Youtube?

Sep 26, 1:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

41.9%chance

451869

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1147

717

Will a video on Youtube break the current record for most viewed independent animation pilot before Jan 1st 2027?

Dec 1, 9:19 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

14.46%chance

201595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2364

251

EU or UK citizen granted US asylum for anti-immigration views by end of 2028?

Oct 16, 4:09 PMJan 1, 4:58 PM

38.26%chance

71542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

787

Will this Angine de Poitrine video get more views than the number of inhabitants of the Tokyo metro area within a year?

Aug 3, 10:29 AMAug 3, 10:23 AM

37.84%chance

7825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1496

390

Will Tom Scott's "This Video Has [] Views" title stop being updated before 2030?

Jul 13, 5:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

28.16%chance

13514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1183

909

Will a YouTube video of/about a Gen-AI film awards ceremony reach 1 million+ views within a year of release by 2030?"

Oct 3, 6:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.44%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

952

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