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Prediction markets for Virgin Galactic

How many commercial suborbital flights will Virgin Galactic perform before 2030 or a major failure?

Jun 28, 4:47 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

131700

OptionProbability

5-9

50-100

101+

10-15

16-25

26-35

36-49

0-4

27

20

16

10

9

7

6

5

Which carries humans next? Starliner, Orion, Gaganyaan, or Virgin Galactic Delta?

Sep 7, 5:48 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

121650

OptionProbability

Orion

Starliner

Virgin Galactic Delta

Gaganyaan

[None of the above]

60

22

8

5

5

When will the first Virgin Galactic Delta ship successfully launch with humans to >80km?

Jul 3, 11:14 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

71023

OptionProbability

2035 or earlier

2030 or earlier

2029 or earlier

2028 or earlier

2027 or earlier

2026 or earlier

24

20

19

18

16

7

Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?

Jul 3, 9:49 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

40.69%chance

3391

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

922

Who will be responsible for the next space fatality?

Sep 19, 3:53 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

11306

OptionProbability

NASA

Roscosmos

SpaceX

CNSA

Boeing

Blue Origin

Axion

Virgin Galactic

44

42

26

22

21

20

15

12

Paying Customer Killed on Virgin Galatic Flight Before 2041?

Jun 29, 5:39 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

19.02%chance

10139

OptionVotes

YES

NO

223

168

Price of the cheapest space flight ticket at the end of 2030

Feb 2, 1:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

212

OptionProbability

$200k-299k

<$200k

$300-399k

Other

$400-499k

24

20

20

20

16

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