OptionProbability
0.3000 - 0.3499
0.2500 - .29999
0.3500 - 0.3999
0.2000 - 0.2499
0.00 - 0.1999
0.4000 - 0.4499
0.4500 - 0.4999
0.5000 - 1.0000
60
13
9
6
4
2
No, a paradigm shift is needed (e.g. JEPA, etc.
No, but transformers are still key (the breakthoughs augment upon transformers)
Yes: transformers scale the best
No, but the new technology is still a “large foundation model” (non-transformer e.g. Mamba, Diffusion)
48
41
Before 2050
Before 2040
Before 2030
61
44
32
