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Prediction markets for Vital Statistics

Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2050?

Dec 28, 1:59 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.36%chance

285517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

884

119

Will a human walk on Mars before we get a cure for cancer?

Feb 3, 7:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

68.25%chance

241825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1006

924

Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2040?

Dec 28, 1:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

131387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

827

128

In What Year Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured?

Dec 28, 2:09 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9880

OptionProbability

2040-2044

Never

2035-2039

2045-2049

2050-2074

2030-2034

2075-2099

2024-2029

24

22

18

13

9

6

5

2

Is Dario Amodei correct that most human disease be cured in 5-10 years?

Aug 16, 4:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.86%chance

12873

OptionVotes

YES

NO

342

29

Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2030?

Dec 28, 1:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5%chance

10639

OptionVotes

YES

NO

436

23

Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2075?

Dec 29, 8:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60%chance

9430

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2045?

Dec 28, 2:03 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.09%chance

9322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2035?

Dec 28, 2:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.86%chance

6303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

286

35

Will All Diseases and Aging be Effectively Cured by 2100?

Dec 29, 8:28 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66%chance

339

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139

72

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