OptionProbability
Israel and Iran go to war
The U.S, and Iran go to war
The strait of Hormuz is closed
Crude oil prices top $100
Ayatollah Khamenei is deposed
At least 10 American troops are killed
VIX exceeds March 2026 high (31.65) due to Iran conflict
At least 10,000 Iranian civilians are killed
At least 1,000 civilian deaths in the Arab Gulf countries
Benjamin Netanyahu is deposed
Donald Trump is deposed
There is a major domestic terrorist attack in the U.S. by Iranian-aligned terrorists
THere is a major domestic terrorist attack in Europe by Iranian-backed terrorists
At least 1,000 Israeli civilians are killed
The Iranian regime will collapse
At least 100 American civilians are killed
World War III starts
A nuclear weapon is used offensively
The conflict wraps up by the end of March.
100
49
28
21
12
10
7
6
3
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
411
477
148
596
527
