Volunteers News

2h marathon has been officially broken by a human

Neuralink trials have happened with volunteer humans

New Pope after Francis

three or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

five or more events from the CoolFold 100 Challenge resolved

Bitcoin has reached $100K at some point

Taylor Swift has been married

Gold has reached $2500/oz at some point

ETH Ethereum has reached $2800 USD (again)

Ethereum ETH has reached $4000 again

S&box fully released (Facepunch's new garry's mod like game)

xkcd is still producing new comics at least once a month

Mr Beast has 500M or more subscribers on Youtube

USA's Supreme Court is still 9 justices (does not get expanded)

publicly available ChatGPT or similar LLM can solve sudokus reliably

True Detective Season 5 released

Elon is still at least a partial owner of Twitter

Super Smash Bros Melee still a popular esport

Fortnite Crossover with the Simpsons

Putin still leader of Russia

Xi still leader of China

Zuckerberg still CEO of facebook/meta

Destiny is still regularly livestreaming

No humans on the moon since Apollo

Palworld is still able to be played through Steam

Slavoj Zizek still giving public talks

a twitter account has reached 500M followers

Charles still King of UK

Team Fortress 2 is still receiving periodic blog posts / small updates

Hiroyuki Nishimura is still the owner of 4chan

One Piece manga is still going (original series)

The tenth drop of the pitch drop experiment has fallen

Coyote vs Acme releases or leaks

Flo is still the progressive mascot (the actress still working )

At least one of the other prediction market websites has gone out of business

Iceland, Norway, or Japan has banned whaling

@strutheo is still on Manifold, with the same username

the game Rust is still receiving regular updates with new content (not just bug / small fixes)

George RR Martin has released the next GoT / ASOIAF book (The Winds of Winter)

Avatar still has the record for highest worldwide movie gross on BoxOfficeMojo

Hytale has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

Winner of 2028 election is Democrat

Nintendo still manufacturing Switch

Apex Legends is still receiving updates and servers are online

The Nintendo Switch successor console has sold at least 65 million units

Total mana bet on Manifold has peaked to 10B in one day at least once

Family Guy has ended

the Rmax of the top non distributed supercomputer is at least 3000 PFlop/Sec (according to top500.org)

Kingdom Hearts 4 has released

Jared Fogel OR Fetty Wap is out of prison

prong.studio still operational and selling products

Chameleon Twist 3 has released (or another sequel)

Kojima's Physint game has released

Bitcoin has reached $150K at least one time

Old School Runescape has released Sailing and at least 1 other new skill

Weak AGI achieved, as indicated by the YES resolution of the Metaculus market on the topic

Magic the Gathering card has sold for $1M or more (other than the One Ring!)

Petco will have filed for bankruptcy

Manifold MAU has spiked to 40k+ at least two separate weeks/occasions

Manifold has sold $40K or more mana in the last 30 days before market close

A second feature length South Park movie has released (like South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut)

at least one spider man movie releases each year

1200 or more official pokemon

Chat GPT 7 or higher available for public use

Annoying Orange youtube channel is still uploading at least one video a month

jd vance has been president or wins the election to be one

Palestine / Israel will have come to an agreement on borders (post Oct 7)

Russia AND ROC are both forbidden from entering the Olympics still

Nintendo ends online play and other online services for Switch (as they did for WiiU and 3DS on April 8th 2024)

there will be a USA federal holiday in August (confirmed happening in 2028 or next year in 2029)

Rabbit is still selling R1 (or a sequel product) and it can be purchased by the average consumer

Manifold has collapsed / bankrupt at least once already

The New England Patriots have either won a Super Bowl (2024-2027 seasons) or clinched the division (2028)

Star Citizen has fully released to the public (not just a beta)

A North American team has won a Dota 2 International for the first time since 2015

The record for youngest Best Actor Academy Award Broken (Adrien Brody, The Pianist, age 29)

Build a Bear will have filed for bankruptcy or been bought

Ukraine-Russia war still ongoing

X (Twitter) brand has changed again (either back to Twitter or something other than X)

Amazon #1 book is a self-help book

A new official weapon has been added to Team Fortress 2 since after 2017

NFL has an official expansion team in Europe somewhere

I'll be dead.

Amazon #1 book is by a politician or musician

China - Taiwan war / invasion begins

There will be a breakthrough in nuclear weaponry

Dwarf Fortress ceases active development

China has landed a human on the moon

doomsday clock is 100 seconds or more from midnight

Taylor Swift has been divorced

All 9 current Supreme Court justices from today (Jan 2024) are still serving

Turkey has a higher GDP (PPP) than the United Kingdom

a tenth country is confirmed to have nuclear weapons

At least one of Paul Biya, Pope Francis, Ali Khamenei is still in power

Josh Shapiro is the President-elect of the United States

Mana can be donated to charity through Manifold at the same rate (1 cent = 1 mana)

Chat GPT 8.5 or higher released for public use

someone has reached 2900 FIDE chess rating

a paper for LK99 or another room temperature superconductor is peer reviewed and replicated

Trump has served at least 1 full day in jail/prison (not at home)

JB Pritzker is the President-elect of the United States

Gretchen Whitmer is the President-elect of the United States

Jared Polis is the President-elect of the United States

No humans exist

Manifold Love is still getting updates or community support/events

No publicly known employment by EOY 2026

Fraudster

Resolves 50% if Ellison marries SBF in 2026, otherwise, resolves to coinflip

A frontier AI lab (according to @Bayesian if ambiguous)

An organization that is mostly funded by charitable donations

volunteering / unpaid-only role

Big Tech

Starts a for-profit company

Starts a non-profit company

Prison guard

Manifold employee

Academia

YES

NO

Samuel Alito (age 74 in 2024)

Clarence Thomas (age 76 in 2024)

John Roberts (age 69 in 2024)

NO

YES

Georgia Bulldogs

Texas Longhorns

Alabama Crimson Tide

Oklahoma Sooners

Texas A&M Aggies

Ole Miss Rebels

Tennessee Volunteers

LSU Tigers

Kentucky Wildcats

Florida Gators

Arkansas Razorbacks

Missouri Tigers

Auburn Tigers

Mississippi State Bulldogs

South Carolina Gamecocks

YES

YES

YES

YES