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Prediction markets for Vox

How many seats will Vox get in the next Spanish general election?

Apr 14, 7:58 AMNov 30, 12:59 AM

1016407

OptionProbability

More than 25

More than 29

More than 33

More than 37

More than 41

More than 45

More than 49

More than 53

More than 57

More than 61

More than 65

More than 69

99

99

99

99

99

99

98

98

97

96

24

1

Will Trump kill or neuter Vox or The Atlantic during his term?

Jan 16, 5:09 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

13.4%chance

153312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2542

393

If Trump is reelected, will he show signs of age-related mental decline by the end of his term?

Jul 4, 11:15 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

89.98%chance

372731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2997

334

Will the Panguna Mine resume operations by 2028?

Apr 10, 2:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.25%chance

222131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2536

333

Will Vox write an article about a scandal at 80,000 hours before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 4:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.25%chance

161844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1966

829

Will Vox write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.13%chance

10742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

375

Will Vox create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29.12%chance

17650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1461

727

Will Santiago Abascal become next Spain prime minister before 2027?

Oct 10, 9:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 AM

1.87%chance

3510

OptionVotes

YES

NO

600

77

Ezra Klein runs for, or is appointed, to a political office by end of 2028

Mar 20, 11:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.61%chance

8341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

232

43

Will a Third Party Candidate win a House seat by 2040?

Aug 22, 1:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.58%chance

6216

OptionVotes

NO

YES

148

68

Which party will win the 2026 Spanish General Election?

Oct 31, 5:34 AMNov 30, 4:59 AM

6105

OptionProbability

PP

PSOE

Vox

N/A

86

9

3

2

¿Que partido logrará más escaños el 29 n en España?

Oct 10, 3:45 PMNov 29, 11:59 PM

312

OptionProbability

PP

PSOE

Algún partido a la derecha del PP

Algún partido a la izquierda del PSOE

27

27

27

20

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