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Prediction markets for Vox

How many seats will Vox get in the next Spanish general election?

Apr 14, 7:58 AMJul 23, 11:59 PM

912287

OptionProbability

More than 25

More than 29

More than 33

More than 37

More than 41

More than 45

More than 49

More than 53

More than 57

More than 61

More than 65

More than 69

99

99

99

99

98

98

96

95

84

51

37

3

Elon Musk endorses a Democratic candidate for primary elections in 2026?

Jun 9, 8:22 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

4.69%chance

397988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4506

222

Will Trump kill or neuter Vox or The Atlantic during his term?

Jan 16, 5:09 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

13.4%chance

153312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2542

393

If Trump is reelected, will he show signs of age-related mental decline by the end of his term?

Jul 4, 11:15 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

89.98%chance

372731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2997

334

Will Vox write an article about a scandal at 80,000 hours before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 4:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.25%chance

161844

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1966

829

Will Vox write an article about a scandal at CEA before end of 2026?

Feb 13, 7:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.13%chance

10742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

375

Will Vox create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 10:36 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

29.12%chance

17650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1461

727

Will the Panguna Mine resume operations by 2028?

Apr 10, 2:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

59.6%chance

20453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

889

Will AI lead to a large decrease in TRANSLATOR & INTERPRETER jobs before the end of 2027?

Nov 23, 8:36 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

85.31%chance

12371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

313

173

Ezra Klein runs for, or is appointed, to a political office by end of 2028

Mar 20, 11:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.61%chance

8341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

232

43

Will a Third Party Candidate win a House seat by 2040?

Aug 22, 1:42 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

68.58%chance

6216

OptionVotes

NO

YES

148

68

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