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Prediction markets for VU

Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?

May 13, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.49%chance

242578

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1258

999

Will the Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 8, 8:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.49%chance

82413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2872

296

How many times will Vulcan-Centaur launch in 2026?

Nov 13, 1:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

111485

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 5

Above 10

Above 15

Above 20

Above 25

Above 30

100

6

1

1

1

1

1

Will vue.js bypass JQuery in popularity by 2030?

Jan 4, 8:13 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

95.46%chance

141302

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

875

How many critical severity cyber vulnerabilities will be found in December 2026?

Jun 10, 8:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41209

OptionProbability

≥100

≥200

≥300

≥400

≥500

≥750

≥1000

≥1500

≥2000

≥3000

≥5000

95

86

76

72

66

50

41

37

26

14

10

Will Pete Hegseth write or say the words "Deus vult" while Secretary of Defence?

Jan 25, 1:40 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

25.85%chance

26783

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

59

Will GiveWell or Open Philanthropy fund/recommend interventions aimed at conservation of keystone species (such as vultures) by January 2030?

Jan 18, 8:44 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

15.36%chance

11571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

912

Will GPT-5.3-Codex (or successor) independently fix a critical security vulnerability in its own code by July 1, 2026?

Feb 8, 4:02 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

9.1%chance

7546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

316

32

Will anyone claim a $250k vulnerability bounty from Apple's Private Cloud Compute Virtual Research Environment by 2028?

Oct 25, 1:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.1%chance

2102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

998

Will a stage at the 2026 Vuelta a Espana be cut short due to pro-Palestine protests?

Sep 15, 3:21 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

39.22%chance

492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

80

Will "Models finding software vulnerabilities is no..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 14, 11:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.32%chance

228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

977

Will I have the Popol Vuh, Myth of Hiawatha, both, or neither in my book list on December 31, 2026?

Apr 15, 8:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

Neither

Popol Vuh

Myth of Hiawatha by Schoolcraft

Both

40

20

20

20

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