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Prediction markets for VU

Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2026?

May 13, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

282747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1275

990

Will the Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 8, 8:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.49%chance

82413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2872

296

In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?

Mar 28, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

182071

OptionProbability

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2025-2029

2045-2050

48

16

16

13

7

Will an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026?

Feb 12, 11:07 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

94.32%chance

191734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

775

38

How many times will Vulcan-Centaur launch in 2026?

Nov 13, 1:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

111585

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 5

Above 10

Above 15

Above 20

Above 25

Above 30

100

2

1

1

1

1

1

Will vue.js bypass JQuery in popularity by 2030?

Jan 4, 8:13 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

95.46%chance

141302

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

875

Will GiveWell or Open Philanthropy fund/recommend interventions aimed at conservation of keystone species (such as vultures) by January 2030?

Jan 18, 8:44 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

15.36%chance

11571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

912

Will Signal be revealed to have a major undisclosed vulnerability by 2035?

Sep 18, 3:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.15%chance

10138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Will anyone claim a $250k vulnerability bounty from Apple's Private Cloud Compute Virtual Research Environment by 2028?

Oct 25, 1:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.1%chance

2102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

998

Will Vulcan ever suffer an anomaly?

May 23, 5:34 AMDec 31, 6:08 AM

50%chance

445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will "Models finding software vulnerabilities is no..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

May 14, 11:45 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.32%chance

228

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1004

977

Will I have the Popol Vuh, Myth of Hiawatha, both, or neither in my book list on December 31, 2026?

Apr 15, 8:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

110

OptionProbability

Neither

Popol Vuh

Myth of Hiawatha by Schoolcraft

Both

40

20

20

20

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