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Prediction markets for VU

In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?

Mar 28, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

182071

OptionProbability

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2025-2029

2045-2050

48

16

16

13

7

Will George Floyd reincarnate as a vulture by the end of 2025

May 7, 6:56 PMDec 31, 7:55 PM

1.6%chance

151540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

784

13

Will vue.js bypass JQuery in popularity by 2030?

Jan 4, 8:13 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

95.46%chance

141302

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

875

CyberSecurity: How much will Code Vulnerabilities (Published CVE Records) increase in 2025?

Mar 23, 7:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5932

OptionProbability

200% (<80,158, double of 2024)

300% (<120,231)

500% (<200,385)

50% (<20,038)

100% (<40,077, same at 2024)

1000% (>400,770)

Other

79

4

4

3

3

3

3

Will Pete Hegseth write or say the words "Deus vult" while Secretary of Defence?

Jan 25, 1:40 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

11.43%chance

24753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

278

36

Will Israel–Premier Tech race at the 2026 Vuelta a Espana?

Sep 15, 3:15 AMSep 29, 11:59 PM

3.06%chance

2582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

563

18

Will GiveWell or Open Philanthropy fund/recommend interventions aimed at conservation of keystone species (such as vultures) by January 2030?

Jan 18, 8:44 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

15.36%chance

11571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

912

How many times will Vulcan-Centaur launch in 2026?

Nov 13, 1:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7493

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 5

Above 10

Above 15

Above 20

Above 25

Above 30

96

83

30

9

7

6

5

Will code vulnerabilities (CVE records) more then double in 2025?

Mar 25, 12:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.4%chance

7424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

419

24

Will Signal be revealed to have a major undisclosed vulnerability by 2035?

Sep 18, 3:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.15%chance

10138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

Will anyone claim a $250k vulnerability bounty from Apple's Private Cloud Compute Virtual Research Environment by 2028?

Oct 25, 1:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.1%chance

2102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

998

Will Vulcan ever suffer an anomaly?

May 23, 5:34 AMDec 31, 6:08 AM

60.98%chance

325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

125

80

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