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Prediction markets for VU

Will AI find vulnerabilities that couldn't have been found by an elite human researcher?

Apr 22, 10:08 AMDec 31, 11:07 AM

59.38%chance

644257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

121

83

Will the Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 8, 8:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.49%chance

82413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2872

296

In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?

Mar 28, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

182071

OptionProbability

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2025-2029

2045-2050

48

16

16

13

7

Will vue.js bypass JQuery in popularity by 2030?

Jan 4, 8:13 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

95.46%chance

141302

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

875

Will an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026?

Feb 12, 11:07 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

90.48%chance

17920

OptionVotes

NO

YES

603

52

Will Israel–Premier Tech race at the 2026 Vuelta a Espana?

Sep 15, 3:15 AMSep 29, 11:59 PM

3.06%chance

2582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

563

18

Will GiveWell or Open Philanthropy fund/recommend interventions aimed at conservation of keystone species (such as vultures) by January 2030?

Jan 18, 8:44 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

15.36%chance

11571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

912

Will GPT-5.3-Codex (or successor) independently fix a critical security vulnerability in its own code by July 1, 2026?

Feb 8, 4:02 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

10%chance

5530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will Primoz Roglic start any professional cycling races after Tour de Romandie 2026 and before La Vuelta 2026?

Mar 16, 6:12 AMAug 14, 11:59 PM

56.43%chance

9289

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1138

879

Will anyone claim a $250k vulnerability bounty from Apple's Private Cloud Compute Virtual Research Environment by 2028?

Oct 25, 1:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.1%chance

2102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

998

Will a stage at the 2026 Vuelta a Espana be cut short due to pro-Palestine protests?

Sep 15, 3:21 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

58.35%chance

352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

84

Will Vulcan ever suffer an anomaly?

May 23, 5:34 AMDec 31, 6:08 AM

50%chance

445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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