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In what year will China establish a domestic semiconductor supply chain that is not vulnerable to sanctions?

Mar 28, 12:27 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

182071

OptionProbability

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

2025-2029

2045-2050

48

16

16

13

7

How many times will Vulcan-Centaur launch in 2026?

Nov 13, 1:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

111312

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 5

Above 10

Above 15

Above 20

Above 25

Above 30

100

27

3

1

1

1

1

Will vue.js bypass JQuery in popularity by 2030?

Jan 4, 8:13 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

95.46%chance

141302

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

875

Will Pete Hegseth write or say the words "Deus vult" while Secretary of Defence?

Jan 25, 1:40 PMJan 20, 10:59 PM

17.42%chance

25763

OptionVotes

YES

NO

218

46

Will Israel–Premier Tech race at the 2026 Vuelta a Espana?

Sep 15, 3:15 AMSep 29, 11:59 PM

3.06%chance

2582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

563

18

Will GiveWell or Open Philanthropy fund/recommend interventions aimed at conservation of keystone species (such as vultures) by January 2030?

Jan 18, 8:44 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

15.36%chance

11571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

912

Will GPT-5.3-Codex (or successor) independently fix a critical security vulnerability in its own code by July 1, 2026?

Feb 8, 4:02 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

10%chance

5530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

300

33

Will Primoz Roglic start any professional cycling races after Tour de Romandie 2026 and before La Vuelta 2026?

Mar 16, 6:12 AMAug 14, 11:59 PM

56%chance

8279

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

Will anyone claim a $250k vulnerability bounty from Apple's Private Cloud Compute Virtual Research Environment by 2028?

Oct 25, 1:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.1%chance

2102

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

998

Will a stage at the 2026 Vuelta a Espana be cut short due to pro-Palestine protests?

Sep 15, 3:21 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

58.35%chance

352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

118

84

Will a new Critical vulnerability affecting the React library be listed on NIST NVD by 2026 03 31?

Dec 10, 10:26 PMMar 31, 10:59 PM

47.83%chance

252

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

Will Vulcan ever suffer an anomaly?

May 23, 5:34 AMDec 31, 6:08 AM

50%chance

445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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