WANTED News

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

77.79%chance

255750

OptionVotes

YES

1872

534

I will resolve this however I want to

Jun 1, 7:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62%chance

493170

OptionVotes

YES

1335

715

@chrisjbillington omnimarket 1 - add questions you want me to resolve and clarify on your behalf

Jan 13, 5:57 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

52033

OptionProbability

Will SpaceX's Starship–SuperHeavy lift off from the launch pad two or more times between 1 January 2024 and 1 July 2024 inclusive?

Will Manifold users reach the $10,000 monthly charity donation cap in any of the first six months of 2024? (Excepting the excluded period at the start of January)?

Will Starship IFT-3 launch within a week of receiving the launch license from the FAA?

To whom does Manifold need to extend its userbase in order to be self-sustaining (link in comments)

[Don't bet on this yet, criteria TBA] How many Manifold users will have a net worth of 1 million mana or more on 1 July 2024? (Rules below)

Will the Tesla Cybertruck be available in Australia by 2034?

[At least ten answers will be added in 2024 that I don't initially N/A]

[At least fifty answers will be added in 2024 that I don't initially N/A]

100

Aella gets engaged to a polyamorous partner who wants kids and has higher income/wealth?

Aug 31, 1:23 AMSep 2, 1:21 AM

28.6%chance

81210

OptionVotes

YES

1580

633

In what year will All I Want For Christmas Is You by Mariah Carey lose the streak of reaching #1 song in December?

Mar 25, 4:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9399

OptionProbability

Other

2031

2027

2030

2028

2026

2029

2025

Will All I Want For Christmas is You by Mariah Carey reach #1 song on the Hot 100 in December of 2037?

Mar 25, 4:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.05%chance

5189

OptionVotes

YES

250

Will "Research directions Open Phil wants to fund i..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 11, 12:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5%chance

1164

OptionVotes

YES

264

Will "So You Want To Make Marginal Progress..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 8, 11:42 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

42.02%chance

9137

OptionVotes

YES

123

SIGN HERE TO JOIN THE BREAD ARMY [ADD ANSWERS IF YOU WANT TO]

Jun 8, 9:13 AMDec 31, 9:26 AM

152

OptionProbability

IM SIGNING HERE 🫡

Im signing here 🫡

BREAD ARMY FOREVER 🫡

COUNT ME IN 🥖🫡

Did anyone from the OpenAI alignment team call for the board resignation without wanting it?

Nov 20, 3:54 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

61.77%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

105

In what field will Kongo find a job he will want to stay?

Apr 26, 7:55 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

215

OptionProbability

Programming/gamedesign

Math/research/science

Entertainment

Engineering/electrotech

Other

Does Qiaochu Yuan believe the world wants him to be happy?

Nov 10, 8:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.99%chance

OptionVotes

YES

WANTED News

Prediction markets for WANTED

Prediction markets for WANTED

Prediction markets for WANTED

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

I will resolve this however I want to

@chrisjbillington omnimarket 1 - add questions you want me to resolve and clarify on your behalf

Aella gets engaged to a polyamorous partner who wants kids and has higher income/wealth?

In what year will All I Want For Christmas Is You by Mariah Carey lose the streak of reaching #1 song in December?

Will All I Want For Christmas is You by Mariah Carey reach #1 song on the Hot 100 in December of 2037?

Will "Research directions Open Phil wants to fund i..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "So You Want To Make Marginal Progress..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

SIGN HERE TO JOIN THE BREAD ARMY [ADD ANSWERS IF YOU WANT TO]

Did anyone from the OpenAI alignment team call for the board resignation without wanting it?

In what field will Kongo find a job he will want to stay?

Does Qiaochu Yuan believe the world wants him to be happy?

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