WANTED News

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

Oct 2, 4:20 PMOct 2, 4:19 PM

78.44%chance

245740

OptionVotes

YES

1907

524

I will resolve this however I want to

Jun 1, 7:28 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

59.84%chance

483121

OptionVotes

YES

1280

751

How many Spotify listens will 'All I Want for Christmas is You' have on Christmas 2029?

Nov 11, 5:53 AMDec 25, 11:59 PM

72340

OptionProbability

4.0B - 4.8B

4.8B - 5.6B

3.2B - 4.0B

2.5B - 3.2B

5.6B - 6.0B

Below 2.5B

Above 6.0B

@chrisjbillington omnimarket 1 - add questions you want me to resolve and clarify on your behalf

Jan 13, 5:57 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

52033

OptionProbability

Will SpaceX's Starship–SuperHeavy lift off from the launch pad two or more times between 1 January 2024 and 1 July 2024 inclusive?

Will Manifold users reach the $10,000 monthly charity donation cap in any of the first six months of 2024? (Excepting the excluded period at the start of January)?

Will Starship IFT-3 launch within a week of receiving the launch license from the FAA?

To whom does Manifold need to extend its userbase in order to be self-sustaining (link in comments)

[Don't bet on this yet, criteria TBA] How many Manifold users will have a net worth of 1 million mana or more on 1 July 2024? (Rules below)

Will the Tesla Cybertruck be available in Australia by 2034?

[At least ten answers will be added in 2024 that I don't initially N/A]

[At least fifty answers will be added in 2024 that I don't initially N/A]

100

Aella gets engaged to a polyamorous partner who wants kids and has higher income/wealth?

Aug 31, 1:23 AMSep 2, 1:21 AM

22.12%chance

61078

OptionVotes

YES

1876

533

In what year will All I Want For Christmas Is You by Mariah Carey lose the streak of reaching #1 song in December?

Mar 25, 4:27 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9399

OptionProbability

Other

2031

2027

2030

2028

2026

2029

2025

Will "Research directions Open Phil wants to fund i..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Feb 11, 12:18 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

5%chance

1164

OptionVotes

YES

264

Will 3D printing software let people auto-print/create a RealDoll of anyone they want by 2028?

Mar 20, 12:27 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.11%chance

4113

OptionVotes

YES

186

Will All I Want For Christmas is You by Mariah Carey reach #1 song on the Hot 100 in December of 2033?

Mar 25, 4:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

210

Will someone tell Jose Luis Ricon "I WANT TO HAVE BABIES WITH YOU, EVEN IF IT HAPPENS SPONTANEOUSLY/SUDDENLY" by 2030?

Jan 29, 4:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.98%chance

235

OptionVotes

YES

JOSE LUIS RICON WANT A CRACKER??

Nov 15, 12:11 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.99%chance

OptionVotes

YES

102

Does Qiaochu Yuan believe the world wants him to be happy?

Nov 10, 8:52 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.99%chance

OptionVotes

YES

WANTED News

Prediction markets for WANTED

Prediction markets for WANTED

Prediction markets for WANTED

Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?

I will resolve this however I want to

How many Spotify listens will 'All I Want for Christmas is You' have on Christmas 2029?

@chrisjbillington omnimarket 1 - add questions you want me to resolve and clarify on your behalf

Aella gets engaged to a polyamorous partner who wants kids and has higher income/wealth?

In what year will All I Want For Christmas Is You by Mariah Carey lose the streak of reaching #1 song in December?

Will "Research directions Open Phil wants to fund i..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will 3D printing software let people auto-print/create a RealDoll of anyone they want by 2028?

Will All I Want For Christmas is You by Mariah Carey reach #1 song on the Hot 100 in December of 2033?

Will someone tell Jose Luis Ricon "I WANT TO HAVE BABIES WITH YOU, EVEN IF IT HAPPENS SPONTANEOUSLY/SUDDENLY" by 2030?

JOSE LUIS RICON WANT A CRACKER??

Does Qiaochu Yuan believe the world wants him to be happy?

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