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Prediction markets for WaPo

Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Presidential Election?

Jan 15, 6:51 PMFeb 22, 6:59 AM

60%chance

11117232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1725

995

If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, and WaPo within two weeks of release?

Feb 18, 5:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

1615971

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9950

101

Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb?

Mar 12, 8:05 PMJan 20, 8:49 PM

10.5%chance

396256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2919

343

Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026?

Apr 9, 11:05 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.13%chance

555213

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1179

782

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)

Apr 9, 8:18 PMDec 31, 9:24 PM

235139

OptionProbability

Other

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Peter Todd

Nick Szabo

Len Sassaman

Dorian Nakamoto

Craig Wright

38

27

10

10

8

5

2

1

Wapol Stock

May 29, 5:08 PMMay 29, 6:29 PM

273101

OptionProbability

NO

YES

476

467

If Trump is reelected, will he show signs of age-related mental decline by the end of his term?

Jul 4, 11:15 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

89.96%chance

362451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2994

334

If Trump wins, will active-duty military be used to control protests/riots in DC?

Mar 11, 3:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.29%chance

231058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

864

Will the first WaPo article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:53 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM

26.33%chance

211008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1480

740

Will a drug to be used by most healthy adults be approved by 2043 year end?

Apr 22, 3:25 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

71.53%chance

20764

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

768

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will A New Accusation of Sexual Impropriety Be Made Against Gavin Newsom by the MSM before Nov 8 2028?

Dec 5, 3:27 PMNov 9, 6:59 AM

54.66%chance

4152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1098

911

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