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Prediction markets for WaPo

Will Taiwan de facto be controlled by China before 2026 according to Western media?

Jan 28, 6:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.55%chance

39101122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

78790

6360

Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Presidential Election?

Jan 15, 6:51 PMFeb 22, 6:59 AM

55%chance

10816559

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1567

1109

Will a "No One Is Above the Law Amendment" be ratified by end of 2025?

Jul 29, 2:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1.46%chance

228928

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8207

122

Will a "No One Is Above the Law Amendment" be ratified by end of 2027?

Jul 29, 3:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.83%chance

257885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2396

417

Wapol Stock

May 29, 5:08 PMMay 29, 6:29 PM

273101

OptionProbability

NO

YES

476

467

Will Laura Loomer have a baby or be pregnant by end of 2025?

Sep 16, 1:53 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

10.97%chance

173006

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2850

351

If Trump is reelected, will he show signs of age-related mental decline by the end of his term?

Jul 4, 11:15 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

89.77%chance

342399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2962

338

Will the first WaPo article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:53 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM

26.33%chance

211008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1480

740

If Trump wins, will active-duty military be used to control protests/riots in DC?

Mar 11, 3:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.75%chance

22858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

906

Will a drug to be used by most healthy adults be approved by 2043 year end?

Apr 22, 3:25 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

71.53%chance

20764

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

768

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will A New Accusation of Sexual Impropriety Be Made Against Gavin Newsom by the MSM before Nov 8 2028?

Dec 5, 3:27 PMNov 9, 6:59 AM

49.89%chance

352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

998

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