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Prediction markets for WaPo

Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Presidential Election?

Jan 15, 6:51 PMFeb 22, 6:59 AM

58.71%chance

11617590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1683

1024

Will there be a separate, second ceasefire in the America / Iran war in 2026?

Apr 9, 11:05 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

67.73%chance

7211755

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1582

502

Will a "No One Is Above the Law Amendment" be ratified by end of 2027?

Jul 29, 3:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.67%chance

279894

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4519

221

Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb?

Mar 12, 8:05 PMJan 20, 8:49 PM

9.35%chance

406451

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3114

321

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)

Apr 9, 8:18 PMDec 31, 9:24 PM

255763

OptionProbability

Other

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Len Sassaman

Nick Szabo

Peter Todd

Dorian Nakamoto

Craig Wright

32

28

14

13

7

4

2

1

Wapol Stock

May 29, 5:08 PMMay 29, 6:29 PM

273101

OptionProbability

NO

YES

476

467

If Trump is reelected, will he show signs of age-related mental decline by the end of his term?

Jul 4, 11:15 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

89.98%chance

372731

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2997

334

Will the first WaPo article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:53 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM

33%chance

221114

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

846

If Trump wins, will active-duty military be used to control protests/riots in DC?

Mar 11, 3:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.76%chance

231071

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1172

872

Will a drug to be used by most healthy adults be approved by 2043 year end?

Apr 22, 3:25 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

71.53%chance

20764

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

768

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

Will A New Accusation of Sexual Impropriety Be Made Against Gavin Newsom by the MSM before Nov 8 2028?

Dec 5, 3:27 PMNov 9, 6:59 AM

56.45%chance

7225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

878

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