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Prediction markets for WaPo

Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Presidential Election?

Jan 15, 6:51 PMFeb 22, 6:59 AM

60%chance

11117232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1725

995

Will a "No One Is Above the Law Amendment" be ratified by end of 2027?

Jul 29, 3:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.92%chance

269885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4396

227

Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb?

Mar 12, 8:05 PMJan 20, 8:49 PM

8.46%chance

386062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3290

304

Wapol Stock

May 29, 5:08 PMMay 29, 6:29 PM

273101

OptionProbability

NO

YES

476

467

If Trump is reelected, will he show signs of age-related mental decline by the end of his term?

Jul 4, 11:15 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

90.07%chance

352449

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3012

332

If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, and WaPo within two weeks of release?

Feb 18, 5:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.46%chance

142255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1583

632

If Trump wins, will active-duty military be used to control protests/riots in DC?

Mar 11, 3:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.29%chance

231058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

864

Will the first WaPo article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:53 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM

26.33%chance

211008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1480

740

Will a drug to be used by most healthy adults be approved by 2043 year end?

Apr 22, 3:25 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

71.53%chance

20764

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

768

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

If Trump wins, will multiple protestors die in Washington DC?

Mar 11, 3:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.06%chance

15479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

440

199

Will A New Accusation of Sexual Impropriety Be Made Against Gavin Newsom by the MSM before Nov 8 2028?

Dec 5, 3:27 PMNov 9, 6:59 AM

49.89%chance

352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

998

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