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Prediction markets for WaPo

Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Presidential Election?

Jan 15, 6:51 PMFeb 22, 6:59 AM

59.1%chance

10816928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1696

1015

Will a "No One Is Above the Law Amendment" be ratified by end of 2027?

Jul 29, 3:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

4.92%chance

269885

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4396

227

Wapol Stock

May 29, 5:08 PMMay 29, 6:29 PM

273101

OptionProbability

NO

YES

476

467

If Trump is reelected, will he show signs of age-related mental decline by the end of his term?

Jul 4, 11:15 AMJan 7, 4:59 AM

89.77%chance

342399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2962

338

If Trump wins, will active-duty military be used to control protests/riots in DC?

Mar 11, 3:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.29%chance

231058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1185

864

Will the first WaPo article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:53 AMSep 2, 12:59 AM

26.33%chance

211008

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1480

740

Will a drug to be used by most healthy adults be approved by 2043 year end?

Apr 22, 3:25 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

71.53%chance

20764

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

768

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

64.02%chance

20691

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

775

If Trump wins, will multiple protestors die in Washington DC?

Mar 11, 3:49 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

23.06%chance

15479

OptionVotes

YES

NO

440

199

Will Congress regulate tire or brake emissions before 2029?

Sep 19, 10:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.69%chance

7149

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

89

Cage Homes in the U.S./Canada by 2035 year end?

Sep 19, 12:09 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

29.99%chance

9136

OptionVotes

YES

NO

411

361

Will A New Accusation of Sexual Impropriety Be Made Against Gavin Newsom by the MSM before Nov 8 2028?

Dec 5, 3:27 PMNov 9, 6:59 AM

49.89%chance

352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

998

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