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Prediction markets for WARN

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

Mar 11, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

48.71%chance

19782934

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8638

4393

Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?

Oct 21, 5:26 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

15.73%chance

674963

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1795

1215

Will one of the GLP agonist drugs (eg Semaglutude/Wegovy Tirzepatide/Mounjaro) have a black box warning by 2025

Jul 2, 7:40 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.87%chance

213474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3699

434

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

75.46%chance

212517

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1753

570

AI Warning Signs: Will a tool that can easily generate generative AI deepfakes be broadly accessible before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:01 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

82.96%chance

172444

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2206

453

AI Warning Signs: Before 2030, will an AI system make $50M in realized profits from traditional investments and trades?

Jan 18, 7:15 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

36.69%chance

91603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1314

761

Will social media sites have warning labels before 2028?

Jun 19, 5:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

53.62%chance

221401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1075

930

AI Warning Signs: Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

Jan 18, 7:06 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

60%chance

9762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:12 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

58.64%chance

10641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

Will the current Israel-Hamas conflict last ten years, as some senior Israeli officials warned during Biden's trip?

Oct 20, 3:51 PMOct 21, 6:59 AM

18.55%chance

18497

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1029

722

will the US department of state issue surveillance-related travel warnings to people who visit china by EOY2028??

Apr 15, 6:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.27%chance

480

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

71

Will the People’s Republic of China switch to a ‘launch on warning’ nuclear posture by 2028?

Jun 27, 7:28 AMJan 14, 12:59 PM

39.31%chance

325

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

80

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