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Prediction markets for WARN

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

Mar 11, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

12%chance

219107722

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16296

4599

Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?

Oct 21, 5:26 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

17.1%chance

8712848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1660

1241

AI Warning Signs: Will a tool that can easily generate generative AI deepfakes be broadly accessible before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:01 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

93.19%chance

193944

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3700

270

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

81.68%chance

242886

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2112

474

In what year will the United States require warning labels on supplements with vitamin B6 about the risk of neuropathy?

Jun 20, 1:07 AMDec 27, 6:59 AM

102837

OptionProbability

Other/Never

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2031

2029

2030

2028

2027

2026

2024

2025

68

50

50

50

50

50

37

31

31

20

14

5

1

1

Will Zvi's "final warning" be heeded by the end of June 2027?

Sep 7, 4:18 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

25.94%chance

112590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1690

592

AI Warning Signs: Before 2030, will an AI system make $50M in realized profits from traditional investments and trades?

Jan 18, 7:15 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

35.81%chance

101628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1339

747

Will social media sites have warning labels before 2028?

Jun 19, 5:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.16%chance

241551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

926

Will the current Israel-Hamas conflict last ten years, as some senior Israeli officials warned during Biden's trip?

Oct 20, 3:51 PMOct 21, 6:59 AM

13.95%chance

24890

OptionVotes

NO

YES

982

967

AI Warning Signs: Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

Jan 18, 7:06 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

60%chance

9762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:12 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

58.64%chance

10641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

will the US department of state issue surveillance-related travel warnings to people who visit china by EOY2028??

Apr 15, 6:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.2%chance

8138

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143

70

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