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Prediction markets for WARN

If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?

Mar 11, 11:22 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

13.11%chance

218106647

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15221

4753

Will there be a warning shot before October 20, 2026?

Oct 21, 5:26 AMOct 21, 6:59 AM

6.27%chance

738867

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4011

973

AI Warning Signs: Will a tool that can easily generate generative AI deepfakes be broadly accessible before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:01 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

89.69%chance

183194

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2950

339

AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:09 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

77.81%chance

212603

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1873

534

AI Warning Signs: Before 2030, will an AI system make $50M in realized profits from traditional investments and trades?

Jan 18, 7:15 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

35.81%chance

101628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1339

747

Will social media sites have warning labels before 2028?

Jun 19, 5:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.01%chance

231451

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

Will the current Israel-Hamas conflict last ten years, as some senior Israeli officials warned during Biden's trip?

Oct 20, 3:51 PMOct 21, 6:59 AM

13.2%chance

21864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1022

973

AI Warning Signs: Before 2030, will an AI system scam someone without being given explicit instructions to do so?

Jan 18, 7:06 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

60%chance

9762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1225

816

AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:12 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

58.64%chance

10641

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

840

In what year will the United States require warning labels on supplements with vitamin B6 about the risk of neuropathy?

Jun 20, 1:07 AMDec 27, 6:59 AM

4225

OptionProbability

2025

Other/Never

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2024

72

72

52

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

24

Manifold removes ambiguous date warning by 2027-01-01?

Jan 27, 6:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.75%chance

5167

OptionVotes

NO

YES

219

46

will the US department of state issue surveillance-related travel warnings to people who visit china by EOY2028??

Apr 15, 6:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.27%chance

480

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

71

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