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Prediction markets for Warren Buffett

Who will be the richest person at the end of 2030?

Jan 2, 11:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38079138

OptionProbability

Elon Musk

Other

Jensen Huang

Larry Page

Larry Ellison

Sam Altman

Jeff Bezos

Mark Zuckerberg

Bernard Arnault

Sergey Brin

Masayoshi Son

An AGI

Satoshi Nakamoto

Donald Trump

Michael Saylor

Bill Gates

Warren Buffett

me

Steve Ballmer

Gautam Adani

Mukesh Ambani

Brian Armstrong

Changpeng “CZ” Zhao

Tim Draper

Jack Dorsey

Winklevoss Tyler/Cameron

@Mira

Vladimir Putin

Michael Dell

Amancio Ortega

Carlos Slim Helu

Vitalik Buterin

Eric Schmidt

Dave Tepper

Ken Griffin

Eduardo Saverin

Morris Chang

35

26

9

7

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

When will Warren Buffett stop being Berkshire Hathaway's chief executive officer?

Aug 31, 2:20 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

2411396

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2023

2024

Other

98

1

0

0

0

Will BRKA hits $1,000,000 before Warren Buffett dies?

Feb 16, 9:59 PMFeb 24, 6:29 PM

70.47%chance

111119

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

52

Will Warren Buffett be alive through the end of 2035?

Jan 23, 1:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.18%chance

13915

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1865

840

How much will Berkshire Hathaway stock change from the day before Warren Buffett dies to the day after he dies?

Apr 2, 12:54 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

12768

OptionProbability

-5% to -0.01%

0% to +4.99%

-10% to -4.99%

+5% to +9.99%

-15% to -9.99%

+10% or more

-15.01% or more

46

29

14

5

3

2

2

Will Warren Buffett be alive through the end of 2040?

Jan 23, 1:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.05%chance

14739

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1520

918

Will Warren Buffett die within 1 year of formally retiring?

May 3, 7:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.99%chance

20508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

259

39

Will Warren Buffett (CEO of Berkshire Hathaway) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Mar 15, 1:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.05%chance

3260

OptionVotes

YES

NO

370

68

Will Warren Buffett be alive through the end of 2030?

Jan 23, 1:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.9%chance

9177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

167

78

Will Warren Buffett be alive through the end of 2026?

Oct 30, 4:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79%chance

5162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

194

52

[Long Bet clone (854)] market cap of Berkshire Hathaway above Tesla on Warren Buffett's 100th birthday.

Apr 24, 11:13 AMJul 30, 11:59 PM

56.94%chance

225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

165

137

Will Morris Chang live longer than Warren Buffett?

Nov 10, 8:18 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60.15%chance

212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

82

60

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