Washington Times News

Adolf Hitler

George Santos

Benito Mussolini

Vladimir Putin

Joseph Stalin

Kanye West

Kim Jong-un

Derek Chauvin

Xi Jinping

Jeffrey Epstein

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Dan Schneider

David Duke

Tucker Carlson

Mao Zedong

Viktor Orbán

Genghis Khan

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Thanos

Emperor Palpatine from Star Wars

Dolores Umbridge

Nero (Roman emperor)

Bill Cipher

Curtis Yarvin

Nick Land

Shaun King

Caligula

King Leopold II of Belgium

Negan Smith

Alex Jones

Augusto Pinochet

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan

A paperclip-maximizing AGI

Lauren Boebert

Pennywise, the clown from “It”

Vlad the Impaler

Saddam Hussein

Commodus

Cthulhu

Hirohito

Lucifer, the King of Hell / Satan

Joffrey Baratheon

Sauron

Hong Xiuquan

SCP-682

Uday Hussein

Nicolas Maduro

Jabba the Hutt

Kyle Rittenhouse

Lee Harvey Oswald

Robert Edward Lee

Pol Pot

The Master / Harry Saxon (from Doctor Who)

Anders Breivik

Voldemort

Chris Benoit

Rush Limbaugh

Gannondorf

Bobby Fischer

Charles Manson

The Mad King Aerys Targaryen II

Jair Bolsonaro

Drake

Hugo Chavez

Chris Chan

Phillipe Petain

A random convicted murderer

A large asteroid, plummeting towards Earth's gravity well

Andrew Tate

Dylan Klebold

A severe case of ulcerative colitis

A time traveler who can only go back in time to kill Hitler if he isn't busy being president

Donald Trump

Kang and/or Kodos

Satan

Josh Hawley

A random citizen with diagnosed paranoid schizophrenia and a dependence on stimulants

Albert Speer

Ibrahim abu Bakr Awad Ibrahim Ali al-Badri al-Baghdadi

Steve Bannon

Cersei Lannister

A randomly-chosen prisoner in the US carceral system, sentenced for life

Ron Unz

Ivan the terrible

Otto Skorzeny

Karl Donitz

Trump's attempted assassin

Christoper Rufo

John Hinckley Jr.

The Loc-Nar

The Grim Reaper

Charles "Chuck" Johnson

Pat Buchanan

A random citizen but he thinks inflation increasing by 200% in a year would be "really cool"

Whatifalthist

Franz von Papen

A virulently antisemitic but otherwise well-meaning person

Erich von Manstein

Nikita Khrushchev

Judas Iscariot

Lyndon LaRouche

Joseph McCarthy

The CEO of MALIBAL

Erich Ludendorff

Mark Foley

Andronikos II Palaiologos

Liu Shan

Roko

Alana "Honey Boo Boo" Thompson

Godzilla

Hasan Piker / Hasanabi

Unabomber

Jozef Tiso

Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho

Thomas Midgley Jr.

Alfred Packer

Brent Dill

Steve Sailer

Erwin Rommel

Gongsun Yuan

Hasso von Manteuffel

King John

EMIL OLE WILLIAM KIRKEGAARD

qin shi huang

Shang Yang

Richard Lynn

James Longstreet

A cockroach

Niko Bellic

Commodus

Tito

an asi agent from openai

The exhumed corpse of George Washington (rather than alive during his prime), with a sign around his neck at all times reading 'slave owner' in red lettering

Vriska Serket

Miklos Horthy

Franz Joseph 1

WILLY ON WHEELS

J. Philippe Rushton

Lu Bu

Yuan Shikai

Yuan Shu

Juan Peron

Connor Duffy

Faust

Paul Von Hindenburg

Charles XII of Sweden

Zhou Enlai

Samuel Alito

@StochasticParrot (Stochastic Cockatoo)

Marlo Stanfield (The Wire)

Darkstalker (Wings of Fire)

Hunter Biden's laptop

Giego Caleiro

Fredrick Robert Brennan

Jeremy Nixon

Charles Murray

Paul Ehrlich

Michael de Santa

anatoly karlin

Jonathan Anomaly

Alexey Guzey

Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope (as co-presidents)

Yuan Shao

Jar Jar Binks

JD Vance

Karl Marx

Peter Thiel

Liang Mong-song

Lucy Guo

A randomly chosen child (<13) who does not speak English and who has never been to North or Central America

Stephen Hsu

James Buchanan

Mehmed V

Klaus Schwab

Sean Hannity

Rochelle Shen

Black Hat (XKCD)

King George III of England

Ada Nguyen

James Dewey Watson

Laura Gao

Claire Wang

@ButtocksCocktoasten

Jiang Zemin

Any child of Trump (randomly selected)

Salvador Allende

Rorschach

Wario

A literal ham sandwich

goth600

Petyr Baelish / Littlefinger

Elagabalus

Biden, but as a worm (i.e., Would you still vote for Biden if he was a worm?)

A well meaning person with severe short term memory issues causing them to wake up every day not realizing that they are the President

Light Yagami

Neville Chamberlain

Rod Blagojevich

Brian Chau (@psychosort)

Emperor Ling of Han

Chris Brown

Richard Watterson (from Gumball)

Tronald Dump, his counterpart in the Mirror Universe

Hans Niemann

Silvio Berlusconi

Timothy Leary

John Edwards

Lex Luthor

George Floyd

Hunter Biden

Razib Khan

Kim Dotcom

Waluigi

Bad Bunny

Deng Xiaoping

Empress Dowager Cixi

A prostitute from the alleged Trump pee tape

A randomly picked Muslim citizen of the US

Brian Tomasik

Your mom

Eren Yeager

THEAMAZINGATHEIST

Richard Hanania

A random citizen of slightly below average intelligence who drinks 1 beer a day and has no high school diploma

Chuck Norris

You (Are you really willing to take on the responsibilities of the presidency yourself to avoid giving them to Trump?)

Ray Shaun Elussy

Lucille Bluth

Michael Vassar

An automated veto stamp (vetoes everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)

Kristi Noem's dog

Moses (Bible)

Yourself right now

Elizabeth Holmes

Eminem

Stan Smith

A random citizen of average intelligence who drinks three beers a day and has a highschool diploma

Justin Trudeau

Futarchy (Manifold users)

Nicky Case

Santa Claus

Robespierre

Yourself from 15 years ago

Greta Thunberg

@strutheo :)

Their child, who has become a juggalo, a furry, and a brony

Bill Gates

Gavin Newsom

Hillary Clinton

Walter White

Chat GPT

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Destiny

George Soros

Bill Cosby

Ellen DeGeneres

Harvey Weinstein

Kamala Harris

Ron DeSantis

A can of beans

George W. Bush

Richard Nixon

Jeremy Corbyn

Joe Biden

Julius Caesar

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Benjamin Netanyahu

Yasser Arafat

Shinzo Abe

Gus Fring

Frank Underwood

Mr Burns

Mr Krabs

Peter Griffin

Homer Simpson

Hank Hill

Cruella De Vil

Senator Armstrong (Metal Gear Rising)

Ibram X. Kendi

Rachel Dolezal

Nayib Bukele

Ayn Rand

Barack Obama

Young Sheldon

Tony Soprano

Patrick Bateman (American Psycho)

Dr Robotnik / Eggman

Vivek Ramaswamy

Taylor Swift

Joe Rogan

Javier Milei

Emmanuel Macron

Doctor Manhattan

Bill Clinton

Donkey Kong

Rudy Giuliani

An autopen (signs everything put in front of it, incapable of public speaking)

Sam Bankman-Fried

Cedric the Entertainer

Glenn Quagmire

Scott Adams (Dilbert cartoonist)

Gollum/Smeagol

Matthew Yglesias

Vaush

Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas

Donald Trump Jr

Napoleon Bonaparte

Jordan Peterson

Scar (lion king)

Margaret Thatcher

Andrew Johnson

Bill Ackman

Bernie Madoff

Jussie Smollet

Avon Barksdale

Yann Lecun

The nominee of the Leopards Eating People's Faces Party

Elon Musk

Paul Atreides

Cenk Uygur

Georgia Meloni

Boris Johnson

Trump from the 80s-90s

Shirley Temple

Mark Rutte

Michael Jackson

James (manifold)

Austin (manifold)

George Washington

Zaphod Beeblebrox

Mr Garrison (South Park)

Lee Pace

Muhammad the prophet

Jose Luis Ricon

BasedBeffJezos

Mike Pence

Nate Silver

Shai-Hulud (sandworms from Dune)

Confucius

hari seldon

Teddy Roosevelt

Franklin Delano Roosevelt

Angela Merkel

Jacinda Ardern

shaq

elvis

random manifold user

abe lincoln

bruce springsteen

billy joel

Rishi Sunak

Scott Alexander's Presidential Platform https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-presidential-platform

buddha

satoshi nakamoto

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)

[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)

[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)

[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)

[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)

[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)

[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)

[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)

[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)

[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)

[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)

[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)

[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)

[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)

[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)

[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)

[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)

[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)

[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)

[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)

[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)

[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)

[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)

[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)

[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)

[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)

[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)

[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)

[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)

[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)

[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)

[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)

[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)

[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)

[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)

[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)

[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)

[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)

[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)

[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)

[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)

[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)

[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)

[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)

[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)

[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)

[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)

[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)

[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)

[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)

[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)

[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)

[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)

[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)

[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)

[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)

[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)

[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)

YES

YES

YES

YES

NO

YES

NO

YES

NO

NO