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Prediction markets for Waters

Will NASA's mission Artemis III find water and use it on the Moon?

Sep 13, 9:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.06%chance

359188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6735

597

Will a GLP-1 receptor agonist (Ozempic-like drug) be added to public water supplies in the United States by 2075?

Oct 8, 10:12 PMOct 16, 5:59 AM

10.31%chance

114231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2949

339

By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water towards the poles to reduce leap seconds?

Mar 24, 5:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.75%chance

443891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2730

902

Will Roger Waters receive a prison sentence for supporting Palestine Action?

Aug 4, 9:24 AMJul 5, 9:17 AM

12.08%chance

192526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2698

371

Miami-Dade WASD ceases adding fluoride to its drinking water by 2027

Mar 11, 9:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80.37%chance

62366

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2024

494

By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water onto Antarctica to reduce sea levels?

Mar 24, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.48%chance

181134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1849

831

Will any water be mined on the Moon by 2030?

Apr 23, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.57%chance

17985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1664

801

Will NASA's Europa Clipper confirm liquid water under the ice?

Oct 18, 1:02 AMOct 15, 3:59 AM

76.55%chance

11959

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1807

553

Will Texas run out of water before 2030?

Jul 13, 8:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.64%chance

10949

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1260

794

Will "Shallow Water is Dangerous Too" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 8:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10%chance

5522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1389

948

Will Corpus Christi "run out of water" by the end of 2030?

Apr 23, 8:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

43.17%chance

4193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1147

872

In case of a war with Iran before 2050, will Saudi Arabia runs out of water for its population?

Aug 19, 10:57 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

68%chance

8178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

181

130

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