Waters News

By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water towards the poles to reduce leap seconds?

Mar 24, 5:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.67%chance

433889

OptionVotes

YES

2845

900

Will a GLP-1 receptor agonist (Ozempic-like drug) be added to public water supplies in the United States by 2075?

Oct 8, 10:12 PMOct 16, 5:59 AM

14.56%chance

83695

OptionVotes

YES

2422

413

Will Roger Waters receive a prison sentence for supporting Palestine Action?

Aug 4, 9:24 AMJul 5, 9:17 AM

15.92%chance

182078

OptionVotes

YES

2298

435

Will NASA's mission Artemis III find water and use it on the Moon?

Sep 13, 9:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.92%chance

281294

OptionVotes

YES

1765

820

EPA budget for water quality programs cut by ≥10% in FY2026 budget

Nov 22, 3:30 PMJan 31, 4:00 AM

80.26%chance

111172

OptionVotes

YES

2016

496

By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water onto Antarctica to reduce sea levels?

Mar 24, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.48%chance

181134

OptionVotes

YES

1849

831

Will the overall claim that low flow showers cause more net water use hold up thru mid 2026?

Mar 9, 12:45 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

50.39%chance

34895

OptionVotes

YES

1081

906

Will NASA's Europa Clipper confirm liquid water under the ice?

Oct 18, 1:02 AMOct 15, 3:59 AM

75.44%chance

9859

OptionVotes

YES

1753

571

Will any water be mined on the Moon by 2030?

Apr 23, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.1%chance

14605

OptionVotes

YES

1293

889

Will "Shallow Water is Dangerous Too" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 8:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10%chance

5522

OptionVotes

YES

1389

948

Tehran Water Crisis Prop Bets

Nov 30, 4:46 PMMar 31, 2:50 PM

6235

OptionProbability

Will Tehran record less than 50mm of total rainfall from December 1st 2025 to March 31st 2026?

Will the Iranian government officially announce daytime residential water rationing?

Will the government announce plans to reduce agricultural water allocation?

Will the government issue a mandatory evacuation order for any district of Tehran?

Will the Iranian Parliament pass a bill to formally move the capital city from Tehran?

Will the Iranian government import water (or sign an agreement to) from other countries to supply over 50% of Tehran?

Will the government significantly raise residential water prices?

Will the president or Supreme Leader publicly admit governmental mismanagement caused the crisis?

Miami-Dade WASD ceases adding fluoride to its drinking water by 2027

Mar 11, 9:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

50.12%chance

2200

OptionVotes

YES

1002

998

Waters News

Prediction markets for Waters

Prediction markets for Waters

Prediction markets for Waters

By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water towards the poles to reduce leap seconds?

Will a GLP-1 receptor agonist (Ozempic-like drug) be added to public water supplies in the United States by 2075?

Will Roger Waters receive a prison sentence for supporting Palestine Action?

Will NASA's mission Artemis III find water and use it on the Moon?

EPA budget for water quality programs cut by ≥10% in FY2026 budget

By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water onto Antarctica to reduce sea levels?

Will the overall claim that low flow showers cause more net water use hold up thru mid 2026?

Will NASA's Europa Clipper confirm liquid water under the ice?

Will any water be mined on the Moon by 2030?

Will "Shallow Water is Dangerous Too" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Tehran Water Crisis Prop Bets

Miami-Dade WASD ceases adding fluoride to its drinking water by 2027

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