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Prediction markets for Waters

Will NASA's mission Artemis III find water and use it on the Moon?

Sep 13, 9:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.17%chance

328427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6460

603

Will a GLP-1 receptor agonist (Ozempic-like drug) be added to public water supplies in the United States by 2075?

Oct 8, 10:12 PMOct 16, 5:59 AM

10.31%chance

114231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2949

339

By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water towards the poles to reduce leap seconds?

Mar 24, 5:07 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.75%chance

443891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2730

902

Will Roger Waters receive a prison sentence for supporting Palestine Action?

Aug 4, 9:24 AMJul 5, 9:17 AM

14.39%chance

182219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2439

410

Avatar: Fire and Ash outperforms Avatar: The Way of Water at US Box Office?

Oct 11, 4:51 PMMar 28, 11:59 PM

1%chance

141454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

By 2050, will humans pump significant quantities of ocean water onto Antarctica to reduce sea levels?

Mar 24, 1:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.48%chance

181134

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1849

831

Will the water level in Lake Mead descend below 895 feet, cutting Las Vegas off from water, by the end of 2030?

Nov 8, 6:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1%chance

81080

OptionVotes

YES

NO

917

8

Will the overall claim that low flow showers cause more net water use hold up thru mid 2026?

Mar 9, 12:45 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

47.95%chance

35945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1130

859

Will NASA's Europa Clipper confirm liquid water under the ice?

Oct 18, 1:02 AMOct 15, 3:59 AM

75.44%chance

9859

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1753

571

Will any water be mined on the Moon by 2030?

Apr 23, 5:50 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20%chance

16735

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1414

856

Will "Shallow Water is Dangerous Too" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 20, 8:41 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

10%chance

5522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1389

948

Miami-Dade WASD ceases adding fluoride to its drinking water by 2027

Mar 11, 9:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

59.11%chance

3400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

832

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