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Prediction markets for Weaponization

Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?

Mar 17, 7:16 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

10.34%chance

18027814

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1850

1105

Will Iran have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2030?

Jan 5, 5:28 AMDec 27, 9:59 PM

17.21%chance

8716006

OptionVotes

YES

NO

561

57

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated offensively by 2040?

Jul 5, 12:12 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30%chance

428006

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

671

Will Iran acquire a nuclear weapon by end of 2026?

Jun 24, 9:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.95%chance

437057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4387

228

Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.

Oct 8, 9:00 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

25.65%chance

306759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2431

982

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before basic AGI?

Apr 5, 1:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

35.05%chance

636268

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1470

565

International treaty limiting autonomous AI weapons before 2030?

Jul 7, 3:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.05%chance

234313

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12657

7939

Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?

Mar 20, 11:07 PMJan 1, 12:04 AM

28.34%chance

143254

OptionVotes

YES

NO

574

453

Will nuclear weapons be used on Earth before 2050?

Oct 2, 12:53 AMDec 2, 6:59 AM

38.6%chance

22772

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

905

Will the IDF fight against Abu Shabab (a Palestinian militia they supplied with weapons) by the end of 2026?

Jun 5, 10:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.81%chance

7615

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1625

629

Will there be an attack on civilians in a NATO country committed primarily with a laser weapon with >19 casualties?

Oct 12, 3:57 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

25.72%chance

11253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

978

Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040

Apr 23, 5:53 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

27.32%chance

11176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

981

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