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Prediction markets for Well Construction

Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?

Mar 11, 4:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12%chance

957703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

271

37

Will "Rail Baltica" be operational by mid-2030?

May 21, 10:38 AMJul 1, 8:59 PM

11.12%chance

235262

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2144

735

In what decade will we have space elevators

Mar 10, 3:38 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

283369

OptionProbability

Later or never

2050's

2040's

2030's

59

15

14

11

Will humans land on [eg Mars] without Starship before 2055?

Oct 15, 3:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.14%chance

71666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1991

502

When will Stuttgart 21 be in operation?

Dec 23, 7:54 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

111594

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2029

2028

2027

2025

2026

Never

54

22

14

5

2

2

2

Will even 500m of Saudi Arabia's "The Line" project be built until 2030?

May 18, 11:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.54%chance

121326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2145

543

Will a frontier model score above 90% on the APEX-SWE benchmark before 2028?

Mar 26, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

71.03%chance

91028

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

639

When will LLMs be able to translate the Food Tongue conlang?

Dec 31, 4:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21665

OptionProbability

2027 or later

2026

2024

2025

42

24

17

17

Are civil High Altitude Platform Systems (HAPS) going to be used commercially for telecommunications before 2030?

May 27, 6:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.06%chance

583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

104

Will the 2 World Trade Center be completed by EOY 2031?

Feb 26, 9:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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