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Prediction markets for Whales

Will I talk with a whale by 2027? 🐳

Sep 28, 10:01 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.22%chance

8414569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1558

927

Will this tweet about whale communication stand up?

Dec 8, 3:06 AMDec 15, 5:59 AM

3.02%chance

2311113

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4037

654

Will AI (or humans) decode and translate whale communication patterns to where humans can understand complex inter-whale discussions by the end of 2034?

Jan 18, 5:00 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

72.29%chance

301819

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

966

Within a year of when we talk to whales, will they be able to solve Sudoku?

Dec 4, 3:33 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.37%chance

241553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1112

299

Will humans be able to have a basic conversation with whales before 2027 using LLMs?

Oct 10, 2:56 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

24.38%chance

261003

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1162

932

Will a whale place a bet on Manifold by 2030?

Dec 4, 8:51 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

5.99%chance

11562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

372

128

Will the North Atlantic right whale be considered functionally extinct before 2040?

Jun 12, 4:48 PMDec 12, 11:59 PM

75.49%chance

20452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

800

Will the North Atlantic Right Whale (Eubalaena glacialis) become extinct in the current century?

Apr 22, 8:38 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

86.77%chance

5364

OptionVotes

NO

YES

802

402

Will the Sperm Whale (Physeter macrocephalus) become extinct in the current century?

Feb 28, 8:03 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.04%chance

7316

OptionVotes

YES

NO

775

411

Will the Orca, a.k.a. Killer Whale (Orcinus orca) become extinct in the current century?

Mar 11, 1:21 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.39%chance

6279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

776

407

Will Japan ban whaling by January 1st 2030?

Nov 27, 9:22 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

24.61%chance

9200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

250

126

Will Spain ban Bullfighting before Japan bans Whaling?

May 2, 7:36 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54.43%chance

340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

109

92

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