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Prediction markets for Whistleblower

How did Suchir Balaji, the OpenAI whistleblower, die?

Dec 30, 1:39 PMJan 1, 6:29 PM

5915860

OptionProbability

Intentional suicide

Intentional murder by someone unconnected to OpenAI

Intentional murder by someone associated with OpenAI

Self-inflicted accident

Accident involving someone associated with OpenAI

Accident involving someone unconnected to OpenAI

Other

85

9

4

0

0

0

0

Will a Manifold user attempt to Whistleblow on Manifold to CFTC before the end of 2025?

Apr 24, 3:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.89%chance

249770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4605

86

Is Boeing killing whistleblowers?

May 2, 8:48 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.7%chance

688527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1878

834

Another OpenAI whistleblower dies of unnatural causes before 2026

Dec 14, 1:20 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

3.6%chance

197764

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5760

255

Will there be a police named suspect related to the death of John Barnett (Boeing whistleblower) by the end of 2025?

Jan 2, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.65%chance

103591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3745

267

By 2027, will it ever become media consensus that a Boeing Whistleblower died by foul play?

May 3, 5:22 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

7%chance

242825

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2682

715

Another OpenAI whistleblower dies of unnatural causes before 2027

Dec 14, 1:35 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

23.66%chance

162761

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1796

557

Is Whistleblower David Charles Grusch Telling The Truth About Non-Human Craft Recoveries?

Jun 6, 1:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.5%chance

182589

OptionVotes

NO

YES

976

942

Will there be a police named suspect related to the death of Joshua Dean (2nd Boeing whistleblower) by the end of 2025?

Jan 2, 4:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.06%chance

152463

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3169

316

Will Jan Leike be charged with violating his NDA for whistleblowing in the next 2 years?

May 15, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.13%chance

232266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2655

780

Will any court rule that foul play was involved in the death of any Boeing whistleblower?

May 2, 5:59 PMMay 2, 9:59 PM

20.29%chance

11269

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

50

Do you think there is a probability of at least 20% that Boeing is killing whistleblowers ?

May 8, 9:41 PM

230

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