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Prediction markets for WIN

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

96.08%chance

100110402767

OptionVotes

NO

YES

31614

8122

Will Trump wins the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [High Liquidity]

Nov 18, 4:29 AMAug 31, 10:59 PM

2.71%chance

5281677182

OptionVotes

YES

NO

600102

16686

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1631433400

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Connie Chan

Bruce Lou

Christine Pelosi

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

Saikat Chakrabarti

London Breed

Other

61

38

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jul 18, 4:24 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

18.9%chance

375611050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

182360

69007

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Jan 10, 7:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.87%chance

634270683

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16131

13632

Who will win the 2028 United States presidential election?

Aug 18, 4:14 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

479261875

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Kamala Harris

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Gretchen Whitmer

Ron DeSantis

Andy Beshear

JB Pritzker

Tucker Carlson

Mark Kelly

Donald Trump

None

Elizabeth Warren

Nikki Haley

Ted Cruz

Michelle Obama

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

Tulsi Gabbard

Jamie Dimon

Donald Trump Jr.

Tim Walz

John Fetterman

Mark Cuban

Ruben Gallego

Ro Khanna

Vivek Ramaswamy

Joe Biden

Tim Scott

Katie Hobbs

Greg Abbott

Mike Johnson

Mike Pence

Jared Polis

Ivanka Trump

Elon Musk

Sam Altman

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

Elise Stefanik

Kristi Noem

Nicole Shanahan

Scott Alexander

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Aella

George Clooney

Tom Hanks

Steven Pinker

Patrick Stewart

George R R Martin

Noah Smith

Matt Yglesias

Kanye West

Doug Burgum

Jeff Jackson

Glenn Youngkin

Barack Obama

Oprah Winfrey

Hillary Clinton

Joe Rogan

22

19

13

6

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

210151951

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

60

39

1

Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?

Dec 8, 6:07 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

53.12%chance

356127052

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

837

Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?

Feb 14, 5:26 PMFeb 14, 5:23 PM

61.55%chance

19243815

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1265

790

Will the Democratic Party Candidate win the 2026 Maine Senate Election?

Jun 6, 4:58 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

66.35%chance

6526709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11841

8888

Will Jamie Joyce win the 2026 12th California Congressional district race?

Jun 18, 9:02 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

2.45%chance

1516105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7292

427

Will Abdul El Sayed win the primary and general for senate in Michigan?

Jul 28, 1:15 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

59.81%chance

507574

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10447

9258

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