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Prediction markets for WIN

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

96.01%chance

100610473168

OptionVotes

NO

YES

31114

8143

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1741497065

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Connie Chan

Bruce Lou

Christine Pelosi

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

Saikat Chakrabarti

London Breed

Other

63

36

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jul 18, 4:24 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

20.9%chance

385625729

OptionVotes

YES

NO

168758

72382

Who will win the 2028 United States presidential election?

Aug 18, 4:14 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

487279412

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Kamala Harris

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Tucker Carlson

Gretchen Whitmer

Donald Trump

None

Ron DeSantis

Andy Beshear

JB Pritzker

Elizabeth Warren

Nikki Haley

Michelle Obama

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

Tulsi Gabbard

Jamie Dimon

Mark Kelly

Donald Trump Jr.

John Fetterman

Mark Cuban

Ruben Gallego

Ro Khanna

Vivek Ramaswamy

Joe Biden

Tim Scott

Katie Hobbs

Greg Abbott

Mike Johnson

Ted Cruz

Mike Pence

Jared Polis

Ivanka Trump

Elon Musk

Sam Altman

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

Elise Stefanik

Kristi Noem

Nicole Shanahan

Scott Alexander

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Aella

George Clooney

Tom Hanks

Steven Pinker

Patrick Stewart

George R R Martin

Noah Smith

Matt Yglesias

Kanye West

Doug Burgum

Jeff Jackson

Glenn Youngkin

Tim Walz

Barack Obama

Oprah Winfrey

Hillary Clinton

Joe Rogan

29

20

10

8

3

3

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Jan 10, 7:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33%chance

644277385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17841

12715

Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?

Dec 8, 6:07 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

33.08%chance

518215982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28422

13988

Will the Democrats win the 2026 Texas Senate Election?

Jan 29, 12:35 AMNov 4, 12:00 AM

58.71%chance

326210587

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12524

8004

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

224160805

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

62

36

2

Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?

Feb 14, 5:26 PMFeb 14, 5:23 PM

61.8%chance

19845488

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1272

786

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Apr 14, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6534714

OptionProbability

Javokhir Sindarov

Gukesh D

70

30

Will Jamie Joyce win the 2026 12th California Congressional district race?

Jun 18, 9:02 PMNov 3, 11:59 PM

4%chance

1716175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5116

497

Will Darline Graham run for and win Lindsey Graham's senate seat in the 2026 Senate Election?

Jul 21, 1:51 AMNov 3, 11:59 PM

80.89%chance

265245

OptionVotes

NO

YES

186

66

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