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Prediction markets for WIN

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

93%chance

8697771450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

18636

8827

Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?

Aug 13, 7:21 PMNov 26, 11:59 PM

507417653

OptionProbability

JD Vance (Ohio Senator)

Other

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

AOC (NY Representative)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Pete Buttigieg (Secretary of Transportation)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Donald Trump (45th President)

Marco Rubio (US SoS)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Cory Booker (NJ Senator)

Ruben Gallego (AZ Senator)

Tulsi Gabbard (DNI)

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)

Stephen A. Smith

26

24

11

7

6

6

3

3

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jul 18, 4:24 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

27.02%chance

223346282

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136876

82260

Who will win the 2028 United States presidential election?

Aug 18, 4:14 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

460215772

OptionProbability

JD Vance

Other

Gavin Newsom

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Pete Buttigieg

Josh Shapiro

Kamala Harris

Donald Trump

Gretchen Whitmer

JB Pritzker

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

None

Ron DeSantis

Andy Beshear

Nikki Haley

Michelle Obama

Tulsi Gabbard

Jamie Dimon

Tucker Carlson

Donald Trump Jr.

Tim Walz

John Fetterman

Mark Cuban

Ruben Gallego

Vivek Ramaswamy

Joe Biden

Tim Scott

Katie Hobbs

Greg Abbott

Elizabeth Warren

Mike Johnson

Ted Cruz

Mike Pence

Jared Polis

Ivanka Trump

Elon Musk

Sam Altman

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

Elise Stefanik

Kristi Noem

Nicole Shanahan

Scott Alexander

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Aella

George Clooney

Tom Hanks

Steven Pinker

Patrick Stewart

George R R Martin

Noah Smith

Matt Yglesias

Kanye West

Doug Burgum

Jeff Jackson

Mark Kelly

Glenn Youngkin

Barack Obama

Oprah Winfrey

Hillary Clinton

Joe Rogan

Ro Khanna

25

24

9

6

4

4

3

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

If Trump wins the election will the inflation rate in 2025 be below 2.5% (Current 2.5%)?

Mar 9, 11:37 PMDec 10, 6:59 AM

28.16%chance

275158389

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10092

5912

Who will be the next person to win an election to US House District 11, other than Nancy Pelosi?

Jun 4, 5:21 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

69101750

OptionProbability

Scott Wiener

Other

Christine Pelosi

Bruce Lou

Jane Kim

Nancy Pelosi will live forever and always win

64

20

14

1

1

1

Which party wins 2028 election?

Aug 1, 7:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7223143

OptionProbability

Democratic

Republican

60

40

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Nov 17, 2:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

31.82%chance

296204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14631

6838

Will the Democrats be favored to win the 2028 US presidential election in the last week of 2025, according to Kalshi?

Jan 22, 8:06 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

60.55%chance

223853

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12830

7603

WIll Dr Jonathan Sackner Bernstein (Parkinson's researcher) win a major medicine/biology award by mid 2036

Jun 23, 5:05 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

35.27%chance

23550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13548

7381

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

42%chance

62029

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11755

8505

Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?

Jun 7, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.9%chance

321

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10021

9979

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