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Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?

Jul 21, 6:56 PMJul 19, 6:59 AM

96%chance

101110548407

OptionVotes

NO

YES

31069

8145

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jul 18, 4:24 PMNov 8, 5:59 AM

15.79%chance

398763848

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208616

63520

Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?

Aug 13, 7:21 PMNov 26, 11:59 PM

702646521

OptionProbability

Other

Jon Ossoff (Georgia Senator)

JD Vance (Vice President)

AOC (NY Representative)

Gavin Newsom (California Governor)

Marco Rubio (US SoS)

Ron Desantis (Florida Governor)

Kamala Harris (Vice President)

Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania Governor)

Pete Buttigieg (Secretary of Transportation)

JB Pritzker (Illinois Governor)

Ted Cruz (Texas Senator)

Mark Kelly (Arizona Senator)

Donald Trump (45th President)

Andy Beshear (Kentucky Governor)

Tim Walz (Minnesota Governor)

Nikki Haley (South Carolina Governor)

Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan Governor)

Michelle Obama (First Lady)

Glenn Youngkin (Virginia Governor)

Stephen A. Smith

Cory Booker (NJ Senator)

Ruben Gallego (AZ Senator)

Tulsi Gabbard (DNI)

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK Jr.)

23

18

13

9

8

8

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Who will win the 2028 United States presidential election?

Aug 18, 4:14 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

490295887

OptionProbability

Other

JD Vance

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Gavin Newsom

Pete Buttigieg

Ron DeSantis

Kamala Harris

Josh Shapiro

Tucker Carlson

Donald Trump

Gretchen Whitmer

Andy Beshear

JB Pritzker

Nikki Haley

Mark Kelly

Donald Trump Jr.

Mark Cuban

Ruben Gallego

None

Vivek Ramaswamy

Joe Biden

Tim Scott

Katie Hobbs

Greg Abbott

Elizabeth Warren

Mike Johnson

Ted Cruz

Mike Pence

Jared Polis

Michelle Obama

Ivanka Trump

Elon Musk

Sam Altman

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson

Elise Stefanik

Kristi Noem

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

Nicole Shanahan

Tulsi Gabbard

Scott Alexander

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Aella

Jamie Dimon

George Clooney

Tom Hanks

Steven Pinker

Patrick Stewart

George R R Martin

Noah Smith

Matt Yglesias

Kanye West

Doug Burgum

Jeff Jackson

Glenn Youngkin

Tim Walz

John Fetterman

Barack Obama

Oprah Winfrey

Hillary Clinton

Joe Rogan

Ro Khanna

43

14

10

8

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?

Jan 10, 7:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.52%chance

659285803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19636

11900

Which political party wins the US presidency in 2028?

Nov 8, 6:22 AMNov 10, 7:59 AM

268219925

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other Party

67

32

1

Would Freddie deBoer win his proposed bet with Scott Alexander?

Feb 14, 5:26 PMFeb 14, 5:23 PM

64.44%chance

19846246

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1346

743

Which party will win the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

Nov 6, 12:20 AMNov 8, 12:00 PM

841502

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Other

67

33

0

If Dems win the House or Senate in 2026, will officials try to block a working Democratic majority from being seated?

Sep 23, 6:08 AMJan 3, 11:59 PM

15.73%chance

16740693

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24642

5236

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Apr 14, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7039486

OptionProbability

Javokhir Sindarov

Gukesh D

72

28

Kim Jing Un is big boss and Kamala wins, or he's out and Trump wins, judgment by mid 2029

Oct 5, 6:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

22.08%chance

129959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18787

5319

Will an AI generated song win a Grammy before 2050?

Jun 7, 4:24 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.52%chance

7401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10134

9925

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