WIN Initiative News

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

3977464

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41139585

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

Other

Will humanoid robots win against the human soccer World Cup champions by the end of year 2038 ?

Jul 31, 5:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

66.53%chance

423229

OptionVotes

YES

1422

647

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.29%chance

11861

OptionVotes

YES

1222

951

Will Switzerland vote to allow usage of nuclear energy again?

Jul 22, 7:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65%chance

33772

OptionVotes

YES

136

What Party will the Winning 2028 Presidential Candidate be?

Jan 16, 11:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20767

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Independent

Other

State of AI-rendered games [Read Description]

Sep 24, 4:43 PMDec 31, 4:38 PM

9662

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction

Mar 31, 12:22 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

17.96%chance

19302

OptionVotes

YES

1256

902

ITP: Which drug(s) will increase median lifespan the most in males by 2030?

Dec 17, 8:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6143

OptionProbability

Sotagliflozin

Metformin + Rapamycin

Sotagliflozin + Rapamycin + Taurine + Semaglutide + Deuterium + Melatonin + Acarbose + 17alpha-estradiol

Empagliflozin + Rapamycin

Canagliflozin + Rapamycin

Sotagliflozin + Metformin + Rapamycin + Taurine + Tirzepatide

Other

Semaglutide + Rapamycin

Canagliflozin

17α-estradiol

Taurine

Rapamycin (alone)

Acarbose

Astaxanthin

Atorvastatin + Telmisartan

Aspirin

Will transit measure on the ballot pass?

Jan 24, 5:06 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

74.47%chance

5105

OptionVotes

YES

171

Will "Winning the power to lose" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 5:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

2104

OptionVotes

YES

1104

984

Will "How training-gamers might function (and win)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 2, 8:01 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

WIN Initiative News

Prediction markets for WIN Initiative

Prediction markets for WIN Initiative

Prediction markets for WIN Initiative

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Will humanoid robots win against the human soccer World Cup champions by the end of year 2038 ?

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Will Switzerland vote to allow usage of nuclear energy again?

What Party will the Winning 2028 Presidential Candidate be?

State of AI-rendered games [Read Description]

By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction

ITP: Which drug(s) will increase median lifespan the most in males by 2030?

Will transit measure on the ballot pass?

Will "Winning the power to lose" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will "How training-gamers might function (and win)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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