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Prediction markets for WIN Initiative

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41239768

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

Other

37

27

19

17

Will humanoid robots win against the human soccer World Cup champions by the end of year 2038 ?

Jul 31, 5:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

60.33%chance

463415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1252

744

Will Switzerland vote to allow usage of nuclear energy again?

Jul 22, 7:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.34%chance

361004

OptionVotes

NO

YES

158

63

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.86%chance

13931

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

959

What Party will the Winning 2028 Presidential Candidate be?

Jan 16, 11:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20839

OptionProbability

Democratic Party

Republican Party

Independent

Other

Other

60

39

0

0

0

State of AI-rendered games [Read Description]

Sep 24, 4:43 PMDec 31, 4:38 PM

10672

OptionProbability

2030

2029

2028

2027

2026

2025

59

58

50

40

27

0

Will a Democratic president begin demolishing Trump’s White House ballroom before 2029

May 14, 7:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.3%chance

13619

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1448

691

By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction

Mar 31, 12:22 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

14.2%chance

20602

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1556

845

Will the Republican candidate win the 2028 US presidential election?

Nov 23, 8:28 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

8459

OptionProbability

J.D. Vance vs. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Marco Rubio vs. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Tucker Carlson vs. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

J.D. Vance vs. Gavin Newsom

J.D. Vance vs. Pete Buttigieg

Marco Rubio vs. Gavin Newsom

Tucker Carlson vs. Gavin Newsom

Marco Rubio vs. Pete Buttigieg

Tucker Carlson vs. Pete Buttigieg

62

54

54

49

46

46

44

40

28

Will transit measure on the ballot pass?

Jan 24, 5:06 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

74.47%chance

5105

OptionVotes

NO

YES

171

59

Will "Winning the power to lose" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 5:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

2104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1104

984

Will "How training-gamers might function (and win)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 2, 8:01 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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