WIN Initiative News

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

3573975

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

The multi-agent paradigm will win

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

Which party will win the most seats in Thailand’s election?

Dec 21, 2:54 AMNov 11, 5:01 AM

1759956

OptionProbability

Move Forward successor - Peoples Party/Move Forward Successor

ภูมิใจไทย - Bhumjaithai Party

เพื่อไทย - Pheu Thai party

ประชาธิปัตย์ - Democrat Party

พลังประชารัฐ - Palang Pracharath Party

Other

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Dec 28, 1:38 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

41139585

OptionProbability

The case will settle out of court

The New York Times will win the lawsuit

OpenAI will win the lawsuit

Other

Will humanoid robots win against the human soccer World Cup champions by the end of year 2038 ?

Jul 31, 5:43 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

69.85%chance

413179

OptionVotes

YES

1529

597

Will Switzerland vote to allow usage of nuclear energy again?

Jul 22, 7:58 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57%chance

29676

OptionVotes

YES

115

Will the Republican candidate win the 2028 US presidential election?

Nov 23, 8:28 PMNov 10, 11:59 PM

8459

OptionProbability

J.D. Vance vs. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Marco Rubio vs. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Tucker Carlson vs. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

J.D. Vance vs. Gavin Newsom

J.D. Vance vs. Pete Buttigieg

Marco Rubio vs. Gavin Newsom

Tucker Carlson vs. Gavin Newsom

Marco Rubio vs. Pete Buttigieg

Tucker Carlson vs. Pete Buttigieg

By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction

Mar 31, 12:22 AMJan 2, 12:59 PM

17.96%chance

19302

OptionVotes

YES

1256

902

ITP: Which drug(s) will increase median lifespan the most in males by 2030?

Dec 17, 8:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6143

OptionProbability

Sotagliflozin

Metformin + Rapamycin

Sotagliflozin + Rapamycin + Taurine + Semaglutide + Deuterium + Melatonin + Acarbose + 17alpha-estradiol

Empagliflozin + Rapamycin

Canagliflozin + Rapamycin

Sotagliflozin + Metformin + Rapamycin + Taurine + Tirzepatide

Other

Semaglutide + Rapamycin

Canagliflozin

17α-estradiol

Taurine

Rapamycin (alone)

Acarbose

Astaxanthin

Atorvastatin + Telmisartan

Aspirin

Will transit measure on the ballot pass?

Jan 24, 5:06 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

74.47%chance

5105

OptionVotes

YES

171

Will "Winning the power to lose" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 21, 5:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.67%chance

2104

OptionVotes

YES

1104

984

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Jan 29, 6:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.91%chance

260

OptionVotes

YES

1047

833

Will "How training-gamers might function (and win)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 2, 8:01 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

1000

WIN Initiative News

Prediction markets for WIN Initiative

Prediction markets for WIN Initiative

Prediction markets for WIN Initiative

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Which party will win the most seats in Thailand’s election?

New York Times vs. OpenAI: Will the NYT win the Copyright Lawsuit on any count?

Will humanoid robots win against the human soccer World Cup champions by the end of year 2038 ?

Will Switzerland vote to allow usage of nuclear energy again?

Will the Republican candidate win the 2028 US presidential election?

By 2028 will someone who first started directing after completing a Masterclass/Online Course win an Oscar for direction

ITP: Which drug(s) will increase median lifespan the most in males by 2030?

Will transit measure on the ballot pass?

Will "Winning the power to lose" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

If Talarico or Crockett wins the 2026 US Senate election in Texas, will governor Abbott refuse to certify that they won?

Will "How training-gamers might function (and win)" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

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