OptionProbability
At least one shot was fired
Someone was hit by a bullet (or other firearm projectile)
The shooter is (or all shooters are) identified or caught within 24 hours of the shooting.
The first shot was entirely outside of (not from or into) the ballroom
Shooter had donated to a candidate through actblue (Dem platform) before
The shooter or shooters have a manifesto
Shooter is an adult (18 yo+)
Shooter is confirmed to be Cole Tomas Allen
At least one shot was fired by a security / Secret Service person
The shooter is (or shooters are) motivated by a grievance against the President or one or more members of the administration
Shooter acted alone (No accomplices)
Shooter is motivated by left-wing politics
MAGA uses incident to bolster urgency for ballroom
Shooter was a devout Christian
Shooter had donated to the Ukrainian military
The shot that hit an agent's vest was friendly fire
Jimmy Kimmel will be suspended/cancelled over the Melania comments
Congress authorizes Trump’s ballroom
Attempt at Market Manipulation discovered
Staged / organised by Trump or associates
The shooter is (or shooters are) motivated by a grievance against the press or a member of the press
Shooter is linked to Iran
Shooter had donated to a candidate through winred(gop platform) before
Shooter wrote on bullets
Shooter is linked to Islamic terrorism
Shooter is a furry
Shooter is motivated by right-wing politics
Shooter was threatened or blckmailed
It was a distraction from Trump firing all 24 members of the U.S. National Science Foundation’s governing body
An invited guest (not including security) fired at least one of the shots
Shooter has a Manifold account
Shot(s) were fired at the President
The show will go on
Shooter was a foreign national
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
99
99
98
96
95
51
18
15
13
13
11
7
6
6
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
0
0
0
