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Prediction markets for Winter

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.31%chance

254104038

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1730

570

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.84%chance

9619891

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2314

1687

In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"?

Oct 26, 6:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5714002

OptionProbability

2030+ or never

2026

2029

2027

2028

2025

2024

61

11

9

8

8

2

1

Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2030?

Jun 12, 6:54 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.4%chance

277394

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

930

Will an AI winter happen by 2030?

Mar 27, 10:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

1267146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1287

1228

Winds of Winter released before 2027?

Apr 21, 1:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.42%chance

233108

OptionVotes

YES

NO

532

19

Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?

Mar 15, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.82%chance

542279

OptionVotes

NO

YES

988

973

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?

Feb 22, 8:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.02%chance

381598

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

985

Will Winds of Winter come out before George RR Martin dies?

Dec 24, 6:32 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

39.53%chance

161155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1238

809

Will Preston Jacobs/SweetRobin's "The Winds of Winter" fan-fiction be completed before the real thing is announced?

Sep 30, 12:46 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

42.2%chance

5710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1170

854

Will True Detective Season 5 be released before The Winds of Winter? (George R. R. Martin's next Game of Thrones Book)

Jan 17, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.67%chance

17499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

920

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

Dec 11, 3:25 AMApr 1, 4:00 AM

74.77%chance

12294

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

941

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