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Prediction markets for Winter

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.25%chance

257109961

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2319

415

Will Winds of Winter (a song of ice and fire) be published before George R.R. Martin's death?

Oct 13, 12:47 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.04%chance

10223583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2349

1658

In which year would Zvi confirm that we've entered an "AI winter"?

Oct 26, 6:35 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5917034

OptionProbability

2030+ or never

2026

2029

2028

2027

2024

2025

64

10

9

8

7

1

1

Will "Winds of Winter" hit bookstores before 2030?

Jun 12, 6:54 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.42%chance

327893

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

992

Will an AI winter happen by 2030?

Mar 27, 10:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.81%chance

1277188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1289

1267

Will the 2029 Asian Winter Games take place in Saudi Arabia?

Sep 12, 2:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.75%chance

144357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2822

72

Will Winds of Winter come out before George RR Martin dies?

Dec 24, 6:32 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

43.98%chance

212460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

887

Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?

Mar 15, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.2%chance

552284

OptionVotes

NO

YES

993

958

Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?

Feb 22, 8:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62.69%chance

391648

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1052

894

Will Preston Jacobs/SweetRobin's "The Winds of Winter" fan-fiction be completed before the real thing is announced?

Sep 30, 12:46 AMDec 30, 10:59 PM

42.2%chance

5710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1170

854

Will True Detective Season 5 be released before The Winds of Winter? (George R. R. Martin's next Game of Thrones Book)

Jan 17, 2:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.67%chance

17499

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1159

920

In the winter of 2035-2036, will we get enough snow in Barriere, British Columbia to have a decent snowball fight?

Dec 11, 3:25 AMApr 1, 4:00 AM

74.77%chance

12294

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

941

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