OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Imane Khelif is intersex
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
DHMO in the water supply
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
Santa is rigged
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
Groundhog Day is rigged
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
Dead Internet theory
Some answers in this market are bought NO because they are true
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Gamergate was right
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
Annie Altman's abuse claims
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
John McAfee didn't kill himself
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
China made covid 19 in a lab
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
China was not genociding Uyghurs
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The CIA killed JFK
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
A cure for cancer has already been found
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Princess Diana was assassinated
The NFL is rigged
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
Harold Holt murdered
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
Bush did 9/11
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Israel killed JFK
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
Epstein was alive as of Jan 2026, but dead in the meantime since his "suicide"
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Exercise is bad for your health
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
The Mandella Effect in general is real
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Epstein was still alive as of Jan 2026
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
QR codes are satanic
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Human didnt evolve from apes
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Rationalussy isn't real.
US government is harboring aliens
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
The illuminati runs the world
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
*All* health care is net negative for health
Q is Putin
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
Yeti is real or similar creature
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
Earth is hollow
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Africa isn't real
Flossing is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
91
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86
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80
76
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9
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8
8
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8
8
8
8
7
7
7
7
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
2269
1739
OptionProbability
Vladimir Putin
Donald Trump
Jordan Peterson
Mitch McConnell
Buzz Aldrin
Clint Eastwood
Joe Biden
David Attenborough
Noam Chomsky
Jimmy Carter
93
91
88
85
84
82
80
48
31
0
OptionProbability
Defeats Surge before step 5,969
Defeats Erika before step 29,643
Gets the lift key before step 9,615
Defeats Koga before step 19,086
Full team of 6 pokemon
Gets HM05 (Flash)
Finishes Rocket Hideout before step 13,222
Defeats Erika before step 23,533
Gets HM03 (surf) and the Gold Teeth in less than 13 Safari Zone attempts
Gets HM03 (surf) and the Gold Teeth in less than 7 Safari Zone attempts
Defeats Blaine before step 29,925
Finishes first Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 1F switch) before step 35,911
Defeats Blaine before step 29,925
Finishes Pokemon Mansion by 29,487 steps
Finishes second Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto left 2F switch) before step 45,200
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni before step 30,275
Gets HM02 (Fly)
50% Finishes first VR puzzle in 50% of the time of Opus 4.6 (<= 2643 steps from first VR entrance to finish)
Defeats the champion
Finishes last Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto right 2F switch)
Stores an item in the PC
Finishes 3F Victory Road boulder puzzle (pushes boulder onto 3F switch)
Run ends/is reset because new Claude version is released
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni before step 25,000
Catches a Pokemon in the Safari Zone
Catches Articuno, Moltres, or Zapdos
Finishes Pokemon Mansion in 50% of the time of Opus 4.6 (<= 1542 steps from start to finish)
Defeats Blaine before Sabrina
Visits Seafoam Islands
Run ends to reset with a model not branded as Haiku, Sonnet, or Opus
Gets trapped in a Cycling Road pocket without fly
BUZZ reaches level 30
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni before step 20,000
Gets the Bicycle
Finishes Rock Tunnel before step 7,998
Defeats Sabrina before step 16,804
Teaches DIG
Uses a Poke Doll on the Pokemon Tower ghost
Finishes the gyms in the same order as Opus 4.6 (Brock->Misty->Surge->Sabrina->Koga->Erika->Blaine>Giovanni)
Runs out of money while attempting safari zone
Finishes Silph Co. before step 15,855
Defeats Gym Leader Giovanni before step 15,000
50% Finishes Silph Co. in 50% of the time of Opus 4.6 (<= 498 steps from start to finish)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
92
92
92
91
91
90
86
76
66
66
62
62
60
59
41
24
24
24
22
20
13
13
10
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
The site is never marketed well enough outside of the rationalist-adjacent community, and there are not enough rationalist-adjacent people to sustain the site.
It is never able to get a critical mass of cis women.
The basic premise of the site is too complicated for people, who prefer to use simpler dating apps.
The concept of gambling on romance is unappealing to most people.
Too few people are interested in trading on random people's matches
It just never ends up taking off, without any particular flaw being the obvious cause
It is never able to get a critical mass of active profiles.
People don't think strangers are more qualified to choose matches for them than themselves
Not enough rationalussy
Other
extreme "everything is public" approach alienates userbase
Manifold as a whole shuts down without it ever having taken off
Unpopular combo of excessive transparency imposed on users / lack of transparency from staff
James pivots to something else
Everyone on earth finds love
people leave the site after finding a match
lack of moderation / lots of harassment make the platform unpleasant to be on
Stripe threatens to stop processing payments
(threat of) legal action
another dating app captures our target audience
It is never able to get a critical mass of good SREs.
It allows minors to join and gets bad PR or legal issues as a result
Messaging failure: The unique value proposition is clear, predictive market match making, however the deliverable does not appear to be clear. Manifold.love could be calibrated to deliver hook-ups or long-term relationships, not both.
Markets are not predictive due to difficulty measuring or defining outcomes, or due to low probability of outcomes
The administration team proves incapable of writing or enforcing rules that effectively keep members safe, and this causes some form of scandal.
All the good dates join @Mira 's cult and the remainder are left to suffer alone - wailing and gnashing their teeth as incels.
It gets a critical mass of fake profiles offering services users are not interested in.
21
20
12
11
10
6
5
3
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
COVID
Wisdom Teeth
Surgery
Blood transfusion
Cancer (any)
Chemo
Vasectomy
Broken / fractured bone
RSV
Heart Attack
Osteoporosis
Scoliosis
Gout
Alzheimer's
Organ transplant
Graves' Disease
Whooping Cough
Coma
Cancer (bone)
Blindness in at least one eye
Cirrhosis
Amputation
Obesity
Bulimia
Leukemia
Schizophrenia
Rabies
Diabetes (either type)
Lupus
Scurvy
100
100
92
81
80
66
63
56
54
52
50
50
50
44
43
41
37
34
34
26
22
18
16
15
15
14
14
12
11
9
OptionVotes
NO
YES
1159
691
OptionProbability
20-29k
30-39k
10-19k
40-49k
50-59k
60-69k
70-79k
>89k
80-89k
<10k
22
21
11
8
8
8
8
8
5
3
OptionProbability
nothing notable
fewer cavities
worse breath
blindness
75
25
13
2
OptionProbability
YES
NO
331
329
