OptionProbability
Teams are a rematch of a previous super bowl
Tom Brady is at the game
Team will be scoreless for a quarter
Winning team has more total yards
Super Bowl MVP is a quarterback
First play from scrimmage is a rush
Player goes into the blue tent
National anthem is over 2 minutes
Player crying during national anthem
Super Bowl is won by a bird team
Any player scores 7+ points individually
Player spikes ball during a touchdown celebration
Failed 4th down attempt
Head coach throws a challenge flag
Last play is 'victory formation'
Both teams make 33 yard or longer field goal
Ruling on the field gets overturned by review
Player gets carted off the field
Broadcast uses video from pylon camera
Winning team has more passing yards
Player with prime jersey number scores a touchdown
Team that scores last wins the game
Score is tied again after 0-0
First turnover is an interception
Holding call in 4th quarter
First score is a touchdown
Any player scores 2+ touchdowns
A player catches the ball with one hand
An administrative timeout is taken
All quarters have points scored (no 0-0 quarters)
Winning margin is 10+ points
WM Phoenix Open winning score under par is higher than Super Bowl kicking points
Injury timeout is taken
Both teams complete their first pass attempt
Head coach or player throws something on sideline in frustration
2 point conversion attempted
50+ yard field goal is made
Coin toss is 'heads'
Coin toss is 'tails'
Team scores in all 4 quarters (same team)
Team scores in last 30 seconds of either half
Trick play results in positive yardage
Super Bowl MVP threw an interception or fumbled during the game
Final combined total of QB pass completions is odd
Either quarterback has 2+ interceptions
Jersey number of last touchdown scorer is even
Announcer says "goat"
Successful 2-point conversion
Play with one or more attempted laterals occurs
Both teams have a 4th quarter lead
Onside kick attempt
Kick is missed
Penalty for 'roughing the passer' is given
Player knocks non-player over on the sideline
First score is a field goal
Illegal use of hands to the face penalty given
Any player has a 60+ yard reception
Player flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct
Team scores in the last 30 seconds of the game
Both teams score in 1st quarter
No penalty called in last 5 minutes of the game
[1st half total score] > [2nd half total score]
[Total score] > [Longest field goal made]
Player retires immediately after game
First drive of game is a '3 and out'
Quarterback runs in for a touchdown
Team leading at halftime loses
Winning team has more turnovers
Backup QB gets put in the game
Announcer says "tush push"
50+ yard return
Unauthorized person gets on the field of play
Player shown eating a snack on the sideline
Team has 5+ sacks
Kicker is iced
Announcer says "stud"
No penalties in the 4th quarter
Streaker (fully or partially nude on field)
Rules analyst disagrees with a decision a ref made
Opening kickoff result is a touchback
Any current or former US president is directly referenced by announcer
Final score is the same as the final score of a previous Super Bowl
Unauthorized person touches midfield logo
Gatorade shower color is yellow/green
First touchdown celebration includes acrobatics
A player's jersey gets torn
Score is tied at half-time
Chains used to measure first down 1+ times
Any player successfully hurdles a defender
Tush Push touchdown is made
Player gets ejected from the game
Live animal enters the field of play
Current or former US President in attendance
Points scored in the first 90 seconds
Taylor Swift is at the game
Altercation occurs between a player and a coach
A player listed over 260 lbs scores a touchdown
Pick 6 occurs
Kick is successfully blocked
Special teams touchdown
No rushing touchdowns scored
At least one team has 0 points at halftime
There is a doink
[LX total score] > [LIX total score]
Puppy Bowl 2026 MVP shares a first or last name with the SB MVP
Successful 'hail mary' pass is made
QB catches a pass from any player
A safety is scored
Team wins by exactly one point
Final score is scorigami
Game goes to OT
Any player to score an octopus
Stadium blackout occurs
Any QB throws for 400 or more yards in the game
Super Bowl MVP not from winning team
Announcer says “hawk-eye”
Team is a first time super bowl winner
Wild Card team makes the Super Bowl
Super Bowl is canceled, postponed or rescheduled (from 2-8-2026)
99
90
80
77
76
75
72
70
70
69
69
69
68
67
65
65
65
63
63
63
62
61
60
58
57
56
56
55
55
55
54
54
54
53
52
52
51
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
48
47
47
46
46
46
45
44
44
43
42
42
41
41
41
41
40
40
40
39
39
37
37
37
36
35
34
33
33
33
33
33
32
32
31
31
30
28
28
27
27
26
25
25
25
24
23
23
22
19
17
17
17
16
15
14
14
13
12
11
11
10
10
9
9
8
8
8
7
6
6
5
1
1
1
OptionProbability
After 2035
Only after superintelligence is achieved
2031-2035
2029-2030
2027-2028
2026
Feb-June 2025
July-Dec 2025
69
49
45
35
20
10
0
0
OptionProbability
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henly lead J.J. Spaun?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Keegan Bradley lead Colin Morikawa?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Maverick McNealy?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Corey Conners lead Kristoffer Reitan?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Ben Griffin?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Harry Hall lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ryan Riley lead Chris Gerard?
01-23, After Round 2 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Robert MacIntyre lead Jacob Bridgeman?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Davis Riley lead Taylor Pendrith?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Lee Hodges lead Harry Hall?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Blades Brown lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Blades Brown lead Si Woo Kim?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Jason Day lead Andrew Putnam?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Tom Hoge lead Davis Riley?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Joel Dahmen lead Max McGreevy?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
91-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Russell Henley lead Keegan Bradley?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
02-15, After Round 4 of the ATT Pebble Beach Pro-Am in Pebble Beach, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
02-22, After Round 4 of the Genesis Invitational in Pacific Pallisades, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
03-01, After Round 4 of the Cognizant Classic in Palm Beach Gardens, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
03-08, After Round 4 of the Arnold Palmer Invitational in Orlando, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Justin Rose?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Patrick Reed lead Justin Rose?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Patrick Reed?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Rory McIlroy lead Scottie Scheffler?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Scottie Scheffler lead Justin Rose?
04-12, After Round 4 of The Masters, will Scottie Scheffler lead Patrick Reed?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Scottie Scheffler lead Jordan Spieth?
02-05, After Round 1 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
02-06, After Round 2 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Si Woo Kim lead Pierceson Coody?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Scottie Scheffler?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Scottie Scheffler lead Nick Taylor?
02-08, After Round 4 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
02-07, After Round 3 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
02-06, After Round 2 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
02-05, After Round 1 of the WM Phoenix Open in Scottsdale, will Scottie Scheffler lead Chris Gotterup?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Hideki Matsuyama lead Si Woo Kim?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Robert McIntyre lead Ben Griffin?
1-15, After Round 1 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Aaron Rai lead Chris Gotterup?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Chris Gotterup?
1-16, After Round 2 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Alex Smalley lead John Parry?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Nick Taylor lead Kevin Roy?
1-17, After Round 3 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Ben Griffin lead Kevin Roy?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Harry Hall lead Chris Gotterup?
1-18, After Round 4 of the Sony Open in Hawaii, will Kevin Roy lead Chris Gotterup?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-23, After Round 2 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-25, After Round 4 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Russell Henley lead Scottie Scheffler?
01-22, After Round 1 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Ryan Gerard lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-24, After Round 3 of the American Express in La Quinta, will Matt McCarty lead Si Woo Kim?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Ryan Gerard lead Chris Gotterup?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Matt McCarty lead Patrick Rodgers?
01-29, After Round 1 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Sam Stevens lead Si Woo Kim?
01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Justin Lower lead Justin Rose?
01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Max Greyersman lead Hideki Matsuyama?
01-30, After Round 2 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Stephan Jaeger lead Seamus Power?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Seamus Power lead Justin Rose?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Seamus Power lead Justin Rose?
01-31, After Round 3 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Danny Walker lead Eric Cole?
02-01, After Round 4 of the Farmers Insurance Open in San Diego, will Danny Walker lead Eric Cole?
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
90
85
69
66
65
59
59
59
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
44
41
24
12
10
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
YES
NO
197
51
OptionVotes
YES
NO
116
86
