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Prediction markets for Workers United

Will there be a US government shutdown in 2025?

Jul 19, 6:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.81%chance

10733650

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4168

745

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

43%chance

8712384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

869

If H.R 9495 is passed, which nonprofits will be targeted by it before 2029?

Nov 23, 4:43 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

153191

OptionProbability

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

Greenpeace

Alliance for Global Justice

Amnesty International

International Workers of the World (IWW)

Democratic Socialists of America (DSA)

UNICEF

Media Matters for America

Planned Parenthood

Oxfam

AFL-CIO

GiveDirectly

United Auto Workers (UAW)

Archive Of Our Own (AO3)

Southern Poverty Law Center

NAACP

League of Conservation Voters

Sierra Club

GiveWell

American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU)

OpenAI

The United Methodist Church (UMC)

Against Malaria Foundation (AMF)

85

52

50

50

50

50

50

50

47

45

43

41

37

34

34

31

31

31

28

26

26

16

15

Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028?

Mar 3, 1:31 AMJun 1, 7:00 AM

40.58%chance

542883

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1203

370

Tax-free tipping results in >10% increase in real wages for service workers within 5 years of implementation?

Aug 30, 7:07 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

22.18%chance

71176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1873

534

Will Robot workers be a major topic during the 2028 presidential debates in the United States?

Nov 10, 12:14 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

28.09%chance

161050

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

656

Will AI call scheduling become widely used in US professional services by end of 2025?

Jun 15, 10:20 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.83%chance

25980

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

966

US whitecollar union membership reaches 10M by 2028

Mar 18, 7:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.42%chance

11238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

988

Will the H-1B visa cap increase by at least 50% or be removed before Fiscal Year 2027?

Jun 17, 10:04 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

13.59%chance

6110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

470

335

Will Unite the Union disaffiliate from the Labour Party?

Jul 20, 10:21 AMDec 31, 11:10 AM

454

OptionProbability

YES

NO

45

33

United Auto Workers Membership increases above 450k (390k in 9/23) before end of 2025

Sep 28, 6:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

68

37

United Auto Workers Membership decreases to below 350k (390k in 9/23) before end of 2025

Sep 28, 6:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

37.17%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

85

58

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