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Prediction markets for Workers United

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

57.01%chance

9113224

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

868

If H.R 9495 is passed, which nonprofits will be targeted by it before 2029?

Nov 23, 4:43 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

153191

OptionProbability

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

Greenpeace

Alliance for Global Justice

Amnesty International

International Workers of the World (IWW)

Democratic Socialists of America (DSA)

UNICEF

Media Matters for America

Planned Parenthood

Oxfam

AFL-CIO

GiveDirectly

United Auto Workers (UAW)

Archive Of Our Own (AO3)

Southern Poverty Law Center

NAACP

League of Conservation Voters

Sierra Club

GiveWell

American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU)

OpenAI

The United Methodist Church (UMC)

Against Malaria Foundation (AMF)

85

52

50

50

50

50

50

50

47

45

43

41

37

34

34

31

31

31

28

26

26

16

15

Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028?

Mar 3, 1:31 AMJun 1, 7:00 AM

35.71%chance

623087

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1163

440

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63%chance

202212

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

768

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.47%chance

181532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1625

615

Tax-free tipping results in >10% increase in real wages for service workers within 5 years of implementation?

Aug 30, 7:07 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

22.18%chance

71176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1873

534

Will Robot workers be a major topic during the 2028 presidential debates in the United States?

Nov 10, 12:14 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

28.09%chance

161050

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

656

What will the U.S. union membership rate be in 2028?

Feb 9, 5:21 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

3521

OptionProbability

9% to 10%

5% to 7%

7% to 9%

10% to 11%

11 to 12%

12% to 15%

15% to 20%

20% to 30%

Below 5%

Above 30%

13

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

9

8

US whitecollar union membership reaches 10M by 2028

Mar 18, 7:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.42%chance

11238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

988

Will any US state enact and use a general wage board by 2030?

Feb 10, 6:46 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

9.66%chance

4201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

269

88

United Auto Workers Membership decreases to below 350k (390k in 9/23) before end of 2025

Sep 28, 6:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12%chance

3117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

187

30

United Auto Workers Membership increases above 450k (390k in 9/23) before end of 2025

Sep 28, 6:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.98%chance

369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

21

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