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Prediction markets for Workers United

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028?

Mar 3, 1:31 AMJun 1, 7:00 AM

21.39%chance

854647

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

793

If H.R 9495 is passed, which nonprofits will be targeted by it before 2029?

Nov 23, 4:43 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

183567

OptionProbability

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

Alliance for Global Justice

Amnesty International

International Workers of the World (IWW)

Democratic Socialists of America (DSA)

UNICEF

Media Matters for America

Greenpeace

Planned Parenthood

Oxfam

AFL-CIO

GiveDirectly

NAACP

League of Conservation Voters

Sierra Club

The United Methodist Church (UMC)

United Auto Workers (UAW)

Archive Of Our Own (AO3)

Southern Poverty Law Center

OpenAI

GiveWell

American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU)

Against Malaria Foundation (AMF)

85

50

50

50

50

50

50

48

47

45

43

41

40

40

40

39

37

34

34

33

28

26

15

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.1%chance

273066

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1838

546

Trump sends uniformed military to polling stations during 2026 midterm elections?

Dec 12, 1:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.27%chance

191582

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

597

Tax-free tipping results in >10% increase in real wages for service workers within 5 years of implementation?

Aug 30, 7:07 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

22.18%chance

71176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1873

534

Will Robot workers be a major topic during the 2028 presidential debates in the United States?

Nov 10, 12:14 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

28.09%chance

161050

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1088

656

Will the Rockstar games workers gain union recognition before the release of GTAVI?

Dec 15, 11:25 PMJun 22, 10:59 PM

40.26%chance

5381

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1218

821

Will Unite the Union disaffiliate from the Labour Party?

Jul 20, 10:21 AMDec 31, 11:10 AM

9263

OptionProbability

NO

YES

67

46

US whitecollar union membership reaches 10M by 2028

Mar 18, 7:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.42%chance

11238

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

988

United Auto Workers Membership decreases to below 350k (390k in 9/23) before end of 2025

Sep 28, 6:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12%chance

3117

OptionVotes

YES

NO

187

30

United Auto Workers Membership increases above 450k (390k in 9/23) before end of 2025

Sep 28, 6:21 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.98%chance

369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

21

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