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Prediction markets for Working Title

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81%chance

501720246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16300

14168

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.85%chance

15687758

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4435

2419

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.47%chance

12337043

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14077

6665

Will Andy Weir write a work titled "The Last Algorithm"? (before 2030)

May 21, 2:29 PMJan 2, 2:28 PM

18.62%chance

222023

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2091

478

In 10 years, will Barbie have been followed by at least 10 (released) movies based on Mattel toys?

Jul 31, 3:05 PMJul 23, 9:59 PM

11.53%chance

161497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1996

776

Will 90% of programmers mostly sit while working in 2029?

Jan 31, 1:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

96.24%chance

161378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2095

883

By 2031, will any new TIME Person of the Year have been selected for their negative influence?

Oct 7, 2:02 PMJan 1, 9:49 AM

64%chance

191151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

811

Will Bethesda publicly release Fallout V before 2031?

Feb 19, 12:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

20936

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1389

336

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending Proof School who first heard about it on Manifold Markets?

May 18, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.77%chance

8190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

257

96

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending P.S for whom M.M substantially influenced their decision?

May 18, 2:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.31%chance

6161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

209

68

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

Will a 100+page book called "Isaak Freeman and the Goblet of Fire" be written by EOY2045?

Sep 24, 7:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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