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Prediction markets for Working Title

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

81.3%chance

500718759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16246

14400

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.85%chance

15687758

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4435

2419

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.44%chance

12337037

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14083

6658

Will Andy Weir write a work titled "The Last Algorithm"? (before 2030)

May 21, 2:29 PMJan 2, 2:28 PM

16.96%chance

221918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2213

452

In 10 years, will Barbie have been followed by at least 10 (released) movies based on Mattel toys?

Jul 31, 3:05 PMJul 23, 9:59 PM

11.53%chance

161497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1996

776

Will 90% of programmers mostly sit while working in 2029?

Jan 31, 1:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

96.24%chance

161378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2095

883

By 2031, will any new TIME Person of the Year have been selected for their negative influence?

Oct 7, 2:02 PMJan 1, 9:49 AM

64%chance

191151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

811

Will Bethesda publicly release Fallout V before 2031?

Feb 19, 12:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

20936

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1389

336

By the start of 2027, will there be >=1 students attending Proof School who first heard about it on Manifold Markets?

May 18, 2:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.77%chance

8190

OptionVotes

YES

NO

257

96

Will Mikael Akerfeldt and Steven Wilson work on a successor of Storm Corrosion in May 2026?

Feb 17, 8:30 PMDec 31, 12:59 AM

60%chance

2147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

Will a book titled "Arylcyclohexylamines I Have Known And Loved" be published by EOY2031?

Apr 25, 2:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.52%chance

23

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

Will a 100+page book called "Isaak Freeman and the Goblet of Fire" be written by EOY2045?

Sep 24, 7:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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