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Prediction markets for Working Title

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.67%chance

480696936

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16706

12559

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

54.85%chance

15687758

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4435

2419

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.2%chance

11636496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14299

6435

Will Andy Weir write a work titled "The Last Algorithm"? (before 2030)

May 21, 2:29 PMJan 2, 2:28 PM

19.8%chance

191718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2013

497

In 10 years, will Barbie have been followed by at least 10 (released) movies based on Mattel toys?

Jul 31, 3:05 PMJul 23, 9:59 PM

11.53%chance

161497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1996

776

When will Megaman X: Corrupted be released?

Aug 8, 6:58 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

81463

OptionProbability

2025

2026

Will not release by 2040

2024

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

Other

65

25

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will 90% of programmers mostly sit while working in 2029?

Jan 31, 1:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

96.24%chance

161378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2095

883

By 2031, will any new TIME Person of the Year have been selected for their negative influence?

Oct 7, 2:02 PMJan 1, 9:49 AM

64%chance

191151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

811

Will Bethesda publicly release Fallout V before 2031?

Feb 19, 12:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.69%chance

18907

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1406

323

Will a junk/fast food company use engineered additives to mitigate the effects of GLP-1 agonists (Ozempic)?

Feb 11, 9:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14.21%chance

9279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

246

41

Will a new mainline Star Wars movie be released by 2030?

May 4, 2:43 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

58.69%chance

8140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

73

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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