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Prediction markets for Working Title

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.4%chance

471686608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17380

10301

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

73.2%chance

15486803

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6125

1486

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

66.24%chance

10422599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11634

10188

Will Meta AI start an AGI alignment team before 2026?

Feb 13, 6:56 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

14.54%chance

233754

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2086

658

A Screen Actor's Guild supported TV Show or Movie will list an AI in its writing credits before the end of 2025

Dec 27, 4:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.13%chance

231921

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2646

445

Will Andy Weir write a work titled "The Last Algorithm"? (before 2030)

May 21, 2:29 PMJan 2, 2:28 PM

19.8%chance

191718

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2013

497

In 10 years, will Barbie have been followed by at least 10 (released) movies based on Mattel toys?

Jul 31, 3:05 PMJul 23, 9:59 PM

11.53%chance

161497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1996

776

Will 90% of programmers mostly sit while working in 2029?

Jan 31, 1:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

96.15%chance

151328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2045

885

By 2031, will any new TIME Person of the Year have been selected for their negative influence?

Oct 7, 2:02 PMJan 1, 9:49 AM

64%chance

191151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

811

Will Bethesda publicly release Fallout V before 2031?

Feb 19, 12:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.18%chance

17874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1358

345

Will the video game Sanctuary release (on Steam) before 1st Jan 2026?

May 9, 11:56 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

69.08%chance

362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

87

56

Charli XCX scores a billboard #1 single in 2026?

Nov 3, 11:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.35%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

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