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Prediction markets for Working Title

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.75%chance

464679780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17782

9207

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.3%chance

15386753

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6266

1436

Will there be a language model called GPT-5, released by OpenAI, this decade?

May 18, 5:33 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

96.42%chance

18524796

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6043

1968

Will Meta AI start an AGI alignment team before 2026?

Feb 13, 6:56 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

45%chance

182182

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1141

752

Will Andy Weir write a work titled "The Last Algorithm"? (before 2030)

May 21, 2:29 PMJan 2, 2:28 PM

22.27%chance

141523

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1868

535

In 10 years, will Barbie have been followed by at least 10 (released) movies based on Mattel toys?

Jul 31, 3:05 PMJul 23, 9:59 PM

11.53%chance

161497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1996

776

Will 90% of programmers mostly sit while working in 2029?

Jan 31, 1:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

96.15%chance

151328

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2045

885

Will "Chameleon Flow" receive 25,000 listens on Soundcloud within six months of its release?

Jul 8, 12:58 PMMar 8, 11:25 AM

18.43%chance

101310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2104

475

By 2031, will any new TIME Person of the Year have been selected for their negative influence?

Oct 7, 2:02 PMJan 1, 9:49 AM

64%chance

191151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

811

Will Bethesda publicly release Fallout V before 2031?

Feb 19, 12:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.01%chance

16551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

737

Will the first serious market creator to die ensure their outstanding markets get resolved?

Nov 14, 4:10 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

9.56%chance

11403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

958

A Screen Actor's Guild supported TV Show or Movie will list an AI in its writing credits before the end of 2025

Dec 27, 4:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.56%chance

18349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

932

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