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Prediction markets for Working Title

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

77.88%chance

505724917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

16837

12087

Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?

Nov 14, 3:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53.36%chance

15987847

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4330

2508

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.36%chance

12437063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14097

6644

Will the Kendrick Lamar/South Park movie get a U.S. theatrical release date announced in 2026?

Jun 24, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.27%chance

3733958

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19453

13614

Will Andy Weir write a work titled "The Last Algorithm"? (before 2030)

May 21, 2:29 PMJan 2, 2:28 PM

16.61%chance

232173

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2241

446

Demis Hassabis still at Google end of 2027?

Aug 8, 1:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.04%chance

201530

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2066

1937

In 10 years, will Barbie have been followed by at least 10 (released) movies based on Mattel toys?

Jul 31, 3:05 PMJul 23, 9:59 PM

11.53%chance

161497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1996

776

Will 90% of programmers mostly sit while working in 2029?

Jan 31, 1:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

96.24%chance

161378

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2095

883

By 2031, will any new TIME Person of the Year have been selected for their negative influence?

Oct 7, 2:02 PMJan 1, 9:49 AM

64%chance

191151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

811

Will I outperform the market by individually picking/trading stocks?

Jul 30, 5:35 PMSep 1, 11:00 PM

53.26%chance

181014

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

937

Will Bethesda publicly release Fallout V before 2031?

Feb 19, 12:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44%chance

20936

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1389

336

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

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