World News

Will Chittagong Bangladesh be declared the most liveable city in the world by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 5:17 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1.11%chance

24178356

OptionVotes

YES

94290

1061

Who will be the next World Leader to Leave?

Feb 23, 3:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

174159786

OptionProbability

Keir Starmer

Benjamin Netanyahu

Volodomyr Zelenskyy

Lula Da Silva

Javier Milei

Emmanuel Macron

Donald Trump

Anthony Albanese

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Vladimir Putin

T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?

Nov 9, 2:16 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

30%chance

1091030

OptionVotes

YES

153

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.89%chance

9744005

OptionVotes

YES

990

982

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

63.97%chance

3114632

OptionVotes

YES

13264

8390

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.76%chance

18513318

OptionVotes

YES

3064

2121

Which country will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Jun 8, 6:04 PMJul 19, 10:59 PM

6610506

OptionProbability

Spain

France

England

Argentina

Brazil

Germany

Norway

Italy

Portugal

Colombia

Austria

Netherlands

Mexico

Belgium

United States

Japan

Uruguay

Morocco

South Korea

Chile

Croatia

Denmark

Switzerland

Serbia

Senegal

Canada

Sweden

Egypt

Nigeria

Ghana

Ecuador

Turkey

Poland

Paraguay

Cameroon

Venezuela

Ukraine

Australia

Greece

Peru

Other

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7910194

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2030?

Jan 4, 11:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.07%chance

607021

OptionVotes

YES

1164

679

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86183

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Will Mexico still host all of the planned FIFA World Cup games this year?

Feb 25, 3:58 AMJul 20, 10:59 PM

87.09%chance

544094

OptionVotes

YES

10078

9989

Who will win the 2027 Rugby World Cup?

Oct 31, 5:12 AMSep 30, 3:59 PM

7223

OptionProbability

South Africa

New Zealand

France

England

Ireland

Argentina

Other

World News

Prediction markets for World

Prediction markets for World

Prediction markets for World

Will Chittagong Bangladesh be declared the most liveable city in the world by the end of 2026?

Who will be the next World Leader to Leave?

T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Which country will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2030?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Will Mexico still host all of the planned FIFA World Cup games this year?

Who will win the 2027 Rugby World Cup?

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