World News

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.82%chance

10045304

OptionVotes

YES

1287

787

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Apr 14, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7039486

OptionProbability

Javokhir Sindarov

Gukesh D

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.8%chance

8838615

OptionVotes

YES

1020

841

Will Gukesh win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Dec 12, 1:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.51%chance

6815606

OptionVotes

YES

3241

1290

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35%chance

18914872

OptionVotes

YES

3617

1599

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.11%chance

3414703

OptionVotes

YES

13307

8366

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8110310

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2030?

Jan 4, 11:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.62%chance

647263

OptionVotes

YES

1351

515

Will the world economy grow by more than 10000% in a single year before the year X?

Jul 4, 7:27 AMJan 17, 4:59 PM

206753

OptionProbability

Before 2100

Before 2070

Before 2050

Before 2035

Before 2030

Before 2027

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

106544

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Who will win the 2027 Rugby World Cup?

Oct 31, 5:12 AMSep 30, 3:59 PM

9569

OptionProbability

South Africa

New Zealand

France

Ireland

England

Other

Argentina

Share of world population living in autocracies in V-Dem's 2040 report?

Oct 12, 12:36 PMOct 12, 1:29 PM

OptionProbability

Above 0%

Above 10%

Above 20%

Above 30%

Above 40%

Above 50%

Above 60%

Above 70%

Above 80%

Above 90%

World News

Prediction markets for World

Prediction markets for World

Prediction markets for World

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Will Gukesh win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2030?

Will the world economy grow by more than 10000% in a single year before the year X?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Who will win the 2027 Rugby World Cup?

Share of world population living in autocracies in V-Dem's 2040 report?

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