World News

T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?

Nov 9, 2:16 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

30%chance

1091030

OptionVotes

YES

153

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65%chance

9845254

OptionVotes

YES

1262

800

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Apr 14, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5126742

OptionProbability

Javokhir Sindarov

Gukesh D

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.03%chance

3214664

OptionVotes

YES

13282

8380

Will Mexico still host all of the planned FIFA World Cup games this year?

Feb 25, 3:58 AMJul 20, 10:59 PM

92.73%chance

6513602

OptionVotes

YES

17398

9289

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.65%chance

18613578

OptionVotes

YES

2661

2381

Will Gukesh win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Dec 12, 1:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35.39%chance

5410445

OptionVotes

YES

2603

1573

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7910194

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86183

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Will Gukesh D win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Dec 12, 5:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.65%chance

313024

OptionVotes

YES

1362

754

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Apr 16, 8:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5611

OptionProbability

Javokhir Sindarov

Gukesh Dommaraju

Chess: Who will win the Women's World Championship 2026 title

Apr 16, 4:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

691

OptionProbability

Ju Wenjun (China)

Vaishali Rameshbabu (India)

World News

Prediction markets for World

Prediction markets for World

Prediction markets for World

T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

Will Mexico still host all of the planned FIFA World Cup games this year?

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Will Gukesh win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Will Gukesh D win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Chess: Who will win the Women's World Championship 2026 title

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