World News

Will Chittagong Bangladesh be declared the most liveable city in the world by the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 5:17 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

1%chance

24173148

OptionVotes

YES

99499

1005

Who will be the next World Leader to Leave?

Feb 23, 3:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

161142470

OptionProbability

Keir Starmer

Benjamin Netanyahu

Volodomyr Zelenskyy

Emmanuel Macron

Javier Milei

Donald Trump

Lula Da Silva

Anthony Albanese

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Vladimir Putin

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.82%chance

9543935

OptionVotes

YES

1071

920

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.03%chance

3014622

OptionVotes

YES

13282

8380

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64%chance

18313303

OptionVotes

YES

3081

2111

Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?

Jun 25, 2:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

74%chance

4811249

OptionVotes

YES

1687

593

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7910194

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2030?

Jan 4, 11:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.07%chance

607021

OptionVotes

YES

1164

679

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76163

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Will Gukesh win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Dec 12, 1:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

43.2%chance

253535

OptionVotes

YES

2192

1839

Who will win the 2027 Rugby World Cup?

Oct 31, 5:12 AMSep 30, 3:59 PM

7209

OptionProbability

South Africa

New Zealand

France

Ireland

England

Other

Argentina

In the FIFA 2026 World Cup, which teams will place 2nd or 3rd in their group AND move on to the knockout phase?

Feb 2, 7:59 PMJun 24, 5:05 PM

OptionProbability

USA

Canada

Mexico

World News

Prediction markets for World

Prediction markets for World

Prediction markets for World

Will Chittagong Bangladesh be declared the most liveable city in the world by the end of 2026?

Who will be the next World Leader to Leave?

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2030?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Will Gukesh win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Who will win the 2027 Rugby World Cup?

In the FIFA 2026 World Cup, which teams will place 2nd or 3rd in their group AND move on to the knockout phase?

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