World News

T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?

Nov 9, 2:16 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

37.41%chance

1091043

OptionVotes

YES

129

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65%chance

9945279

OptionVotes

YES

1262

800

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Apr 14, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5430637

OptionProbability

Javokhir Sindarov

Gukesh D

Will Mexico still host all of the planned FIFA World Cup games this year?

Feb 25, 3:58 AMJul 20, 10:59 PM

92.95%chance

7016402

OptionVotes

YES

17913

9249

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.03%chance

3314678

OptionVotes

YES

13282

8380

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.24%chance

18814128

OptionVotes

YES

2929

2068

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8110310

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2030?

Jan 4, 11:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.07%chance

607021

OptionVotes

YES

1164

679

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86464

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Who will win the 2027 Rugby World Cup?

Oct 31, 5:12 AMSep 30, 3:59 PM

7460

OptionProbability

New Zealand

South Africa

France

Ireland

Argentina

England

Other

2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Final (TBD beats TBD)

May 17, 3:23 AMJul 19, 2:59 PM

50.3%chance

4317

OptionVotes

YES

10060

9941

2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Semi-Finals

May 17, 3:19 AMJul 15, 11:59 PM

180

OptionProbability

TBD beats TBD ⚽ July 15 (3pm) FOX

TBD beats TBD ⚽ July 14 (3pm) FOX

World News

Prediction markets for World

Prediction markets for World

Prediction markets for World

T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Will Mexico still host all of the planned FIFA World Cup games this year?

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2030?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Who will win the 2027 Rugby World Cup?

2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Final (TBD beats TBD)

2026 FIFA World Cup Mega-Market: Semi-Finals

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