World News

T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?

Nov 9, 2:16 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

34.82%chance

1591141

OptionVotes

YES

137

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

65.82%chance

10045304

OptionVotes

YES

1287

787

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.8%chance

8838615

OptionVotes

YES

1020

841

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Apr 14, 6:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6534714

OptionProbability

Javokhir Sindarov

Gukesh D

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35%chance

18914872

OptionVotes

YES

3617

1599

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.11%chance

3414703

OptionVotes

YES

13307

8366

Will Gukesh win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Dec 12, 1:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

31%chance

6213185

OptionVotes

YES

2888

1432

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8110310

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2030?

Jan 4, 11:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

55.7%chance

617158

OptionVotes

YES

1296

556

Will the world economy grow by more than 10000% in a single year before the year X?

Jul 4, 7:27 AMJan 17, 4:59 PM

206753

OptionProbability

Before 2100

Before 2070

Before 2050

Before 2035

Before 2030

Before 2027

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86464

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Who will win the 2027 Rugby World Cup?

Oct 31, 5:12 AMSep 30, 3:59 PM

7460

OptionProbability

New Zealand

South Africa

France

Ireland

Argentina

England

Other

World News

Prediction markets for World

Prediction markets for World

Prediction markets for World

T1 wins League of Legends Worlds 2026?

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Who will win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

Will Gukesh win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2030?

Will the world economy grow by more than 10000% in a single year before the year X?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Who will win the 2027 Rugby World Cup?

Latest stories