World News

Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?

Jan 22, 5:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

95.73%chance

199175021

OptionVotes

YES

43607

6356

Who will be the next World Leader to Leave?

Feb 23, 3:06 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

148136525

OptionProbability

Keir Starmer

Volodomyr Zelenskyy

Benjamin Netanyahu

Lula Da Silva

Javier Milei

Emmanuel Macron

Donald Trump

Anthony Albanese

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Vladimir Putin

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Apr 21, 8:10 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

50.91%chance

9443785

OptionVotes

YES

1046

921

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

YES

987

956

Which combinations of technology will cause most disruption the world in the next 25 years?

Feb 18, 5:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9415448

OptionProbability

Bitcoin + AI

Energy harvesting + sensor ubiquity

AI + Genetics

Bitcoin + XR

Social media + AI

AI + Internet

AI + Spatial Computing

AI + Medicine

Fintech + AI

AI + Advanced Materials

AI + Bioengineering

AI + Physics

AI + Robotics

3D Printing + Materials Science

BCI + Internet

Mobile Technology + Social Media

AI + IoT

XR + AI

Quantum Computing + Materials Science

AI + VR

AI+Blockchain

AI + Prediction Markets

Wearable Technology + Telemedicine

GPS + Real-time Traffic Data

Haptics + BCI

AI + fossil fuels

Vertical farming + Solar

BCI + Remote sensing

Decentralized IP Verification and Education (Blockchain Credentials)

Nuclear Energy + Transportation

BCI + Dating Apps

Predictive Markets and Constitutional Alignment of AI

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

May 22, 2:13 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

64.03%chance

3014622

OptionVotes

YES

13282

8380

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.07%chance

18312142

OptionVotes

YES

3887

1744

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

779932

OptionProbability

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?

Jun 25, 2:58 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70%chance

447835

OptionVotes

YES

1528

655

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2030?

Jan 4, 11:19 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

48.07%chance

607021

OptionVotes

YES

1164

679

Will Gukesh win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Dec 12, 1:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

48.21%chance

162318

OptionVotes

YES

2023

1970

Who will win the 2027 Rugby World Cup?

Oct 31, 5:12 AMSep 30, 3:59 PM

7209

OptionProbability

South Africa

New Zealand

France

Ireland

England

Other

Argentina

World News

Prediction markets for World

Prediction markets for World

Prediction markets for World

Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?

Who will be the next World Leader to Leave?

Will China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Which combinations of technology will cause most disruption the world in the next 25 years?

World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Will ASML remain the world’s only producer of EUV machines until the end of 2026?

Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2030?

Will Gukesh win the 2026 World Chess Championship?

Who will win the 2027 Rugby World Cup?

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