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Prediction markets for World Fund

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.25%chance

325859713

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7539

3536

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.39%chance

340104594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5080

3679

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.54%chance

8911423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3621

355

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

28.82%chance

5910001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5814

4759

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:17 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.08%chance

188507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6378

3288

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.08%chance

127430

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7704

2333

How much will Manifund's Falcon Fund raise by May 15?

Apr 25, 1:13 AMApr 25, 6:59 AM

85305

OptionProbability

Below $500,000

$500,000 - $999,999

$1,000,000 - $1,999,999

$2,000,000 - $2,999,999

$3,000,000 - $4,000,000

Above $4,000,000

34

18

17

12

11

6

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.89%chance

253805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

922

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

37

24

9

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?

Apr 6, 6:59 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

50.62%chance

10972

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1133

838

When will Senegal lower their debt to GDP ratio below 100%?

Apr 21, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

20

20

20

20

20

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