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Prediction markets for World Fund

Will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28.28%chance

344879198

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4502

3083

Will artificial superintelligence exist by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]

Jul 28, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.56%chance

350107942

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4159

4150

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.03%chance

9112035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2562

536

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1510936

OptionProbability

None

(0, 200]

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

61

23

8

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

29.15%chance

6110099

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5753

4784

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.18%chance

158124

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8398

2142

Chat-style AI models will be a big part of 10% or more of workers's workflows in developed nations by 2027

Feb 2, 3:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.07%chance

1298015

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1846

1470

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.07%chance

347402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

688

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.6% in 2026?

Apr 6, 6:59 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

20.23%chance

132165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2035

372

Will Databricks IPO before 2028?

Oct 1, 5:15 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.45%chance

131031

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1236

809

When will Senegal lower their debt to GDP ratio below 100%?

Apr 21, 4:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

May-Aug 2026

Sep-Dec 2026

Jan-Apr 2027

May-Aug 2027

Sep-Dec 2027

20

20

20

20

20

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