World Health Organization News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

A major war in Asia occurs

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

Trump visits Africa

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

The US leaves the World Health Organization

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

Fair elections in 2028

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

US national bitcoin reserve created

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

Approval < 35%

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

A new supreme court justice appointed

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

USA experiences a recession.

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

Vances have another kid

trump gets hospitalized

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

The US military executes an aggressive operation on Cuban soil

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

N/A this please, pressed by mistake

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

US Invasion of any North/South American country

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

New

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

Trump and Obama shake hands

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Dow rises above 65,000

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Trump says a racial slur

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

War is declared against another nation

Trump suggests that there should be a crusade (including jokes)

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

Tesla

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Joe Biden dies

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

10% fewer government agencies

NATO invokes Article 5

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

BTC falls below $38,000

Trump gets covid (again)

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

New national park created

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Trump announces he is tired of winning

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Constitutional Amendment

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

JD Vance elected President

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

The department of education gets desolved

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Another pandemic

Starship lands on Mars

Record level unemployment

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump dies

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

Laura Loomer gets any government role

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Approval < 25%

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

Trump gets shot

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

south park is canceled/discontinued

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump is seen shirtless

Trump raps (says multiple lines that rhyme and fit a background music beat)

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump runs for a third term

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump extends his term past 4 years

54 or more Republican senate seats

Trump is assassinated

Cannabis is federally legalized

Trump gives the middle finger hand gesture with both hands at once

55 or more Republican senate seats

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

A national ban on gender-affirming care

"covfefe" posted again

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

SpaceX is nationalized

Trump threatens Israel with military action

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

Repeal obamacare

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Constitutional Amendment

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

Trump and Melania divorce

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump accurately quotes a Bible verse with its Book Chapter:Verse citation, verbally and without reading from a script/notes/autocue, excluding Genesis 1:1

Trump bans abortion nationwide

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Anthony Fauci is convicted

A hurricane will be nuked

New US national anthem

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

Jimmy Carter dies

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

YES

Iran and Israel both sign (or publicly accept) a written cease-fire or peace agreement, and no lethal exchange of fire between their regular forces occurs for the following 30 consecutive days

Autonomous lethal drones (no human on the kill-decision loop) are acknowledged by any state to have been used in combat

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Israel

Min Aung Hlaing ceases to serve as either (a) Chairman of the State Administration Council or (b) Commander-in-Chief of the Myanmar Armed Forces

Thailand's Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra resigns

Government official from Mexico attends the 2025 BRICS Summit

Iran - Israel War ends in 2025 (ceasefire last at least 90 days (September 22, 2025) or peace deal is signed)

A new non-majority Muslim (according to CIA Factbook) state becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

≥ 25 fatalities in Cambodia-Thailand border clashes

DRC & Rwanda sign USA-brokered peace agreement

≥ 1,500 Palestinians killed near Gaza aid hubs

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire in 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ends in ceasefire before October 1, 2025

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash ceasefire is broken

Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash reignites (fighting resumes)

Indonesia becomes a member of BRICS

World leader of 20m+ population country is assassinated

United States government arrests president Nicolas Maduro of Venezuela

At any point more than 5,000 USA National Guard Troops domestically deployed

Saudi Arabia prices oil exports to China in Yuan (CNY)

India's 2026-2027 Defence Budget exceeds ₹7.5 lakh crore

A new cease-fire between Iran and United States OR Israel is declared post Feb 28, 2026

United States troops enter Iran

Donald Trump and Iran work out a "deal" to cease hostilities (even temporarily)

Benjamin Netanyahu alive as of April 30, 2026

Kim Jong Un remains General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (or equivalent title)

Russia remains a permanent member of UN Security Council

Donald Trump remains President of USA

Xi Jinping remains General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party

Claudia Sheinbaum remains President of Mexico

Vladimir Putin remains President of Russia

USA and Iran agree to a new cease fire post April 10, 2026

Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains President of Ukraine

Confirmed overflight of US Military aircraft over Cuba

An armed non-state group captures and holds the capital city of a UN-recognised state for ≥72 hours

Iran and Israel agree to a Cease Fire

Ukraine - Russia War halted by Ceasefire

Hostile military action by United States against Cuba

Russian-Ukraine War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

A cyber-attack officially attributed to a foreign state actor causes ≥US $1 billion in insured losses to a single country

A new ceasefire between Israel and Gaza is announced by Donald Trump

123

Iran-Israel War continues through end of 2026 with no Cease-fire or Peace Agreement

A country declares war on Israel

A cease-fire or peace deal is violated by Iran

A drone attacks a head of state (hits or lands within 30 meters)

Nigeria becomes a member of BRICS

Algeria becomes a member of BRICS

A state shoot-down of a spacecraft or satellite in orbit is publicly confirmed

North Korea conducts a nuclear weapons test

A 5th-generation fighter jet is confirmed to have been destroyed in air/shot down (not including being damaged from an airfield bombing)

Azerbaijan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Trump, Putin, & Zelensky meet together in the same room

The U.S. suffers ≥50 combat fatalities in a single new overseas operation—defined as a country where no U.S. combat deaths occurred in 2024

At least 5,000 uniformed personnel belonging to a UN-Security-Council-authorized security or peace-keeping mission are physically deployed in Haiti

Russia sells or scraps it's only aircraft carrier; the Admiral Kuznetsov

China declares an air- or maritime-exclusion zone covering any part of Taiwan’s territorial sea or airspace

Russian armed forces intentionally attack uniformed personnel or sovereign assets of any NATO member state, or vice-versa

Kazakhstan becomes a member of BRICS

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Europe

USA performs military action (troops/special forces deployed or airstrike/missile strike) in Mexico resulting in confirmed deaths

An armed clash between India and Pakistan results in ≥100 military fatalities in a 7-day period

Ukraine - Russia War ends with a peace treaty

Vladimir Putin is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Non-PSUV candidate inaugurated as next President of Venezuela

Any EU member invokes Article 42 (7) of the Treaty on European Union in response to an armed attack

Saudi Arabia becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Uniformed armed forces in any G20 member state attempt to seize executive power from the constitutional head of government

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations

Any signatory of the CTBT tests a nuclear weapon

North Korea provides missile(s) to Iran

1+ deaths attributed to a rogue AI

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United States

North Korea - South Korea results in any civilian deaths

Egypt formally declares war on another country

At least three sovereign states outside NATO, EU, ANZUS, or the Quad sign a formal mutual-defence treaty deposited with the UN Treaty Series

Successful military coup in Venezuela

Any NATO country formally declares war on another country

The IAEA publicly reports that Iran possesses uranium enriched to ≥90 % U-235

Japan launches a domestically-built intermediate-range ballistic missile (>3 000 km advertised range) test

A head of state from a G20 country is assassinated

Mexico becomes a member of BRICS

An armed clash in the Shaksgam Valley between India & China resulting in ≥10 fatalities in a 7-day period

Oil prices reach $150 USD a barrel

Sudanese Civil War ends

Syria becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Bangladesh becomes a member of BRICS

Iran undergoes a regime change

Iraq becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A vessel larger than 50,000 deadweight tons is damaged or sunk by a naval mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Lebanon becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Iran loses territory

United Kingdom formally states intention to begin process to reverse "Brexit"

Libya becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

A nation officially announces AGI has been achieved

China formally declares war on another country

Benjamin Netanyahu remains Prime Minister of Israel

160 UN Nations simultaneously officially regonize Palestine's statehood.

Azerbaijani troops enter Iran

Venezuela becomes a member of BRICS

A country declares war on United States

China becomes militarily involved in Cambodia - Thailand Border Clash

Benjamin Netanyahu is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any hostile military forces are deployed on Israeli soil

A peace treaty ending the Ethiopia–Tigray conflict is signed and remains unbroken for 90 days

USA leaves NATO

Any country leaves NATO

Israel loses territory

United Nations Security Council adopts (i.e., passes without veto) a formal resolution that explicitly condemns Israel’s use of lethal force against civilians seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza or demands Israel cease such force

Iranian troops enter Israel

India's Prime Minister Modi steps down or announces a successor

A leader of a country is tried and executed by a UN recognized state.

Burj Khalifa destroyed via hostile action

A country announces magnetic-fusion net-positive energy

United States formally declares war on another country

The Government of Denmark publicly acknowledges receipt of a formal written offer from Donald J. Trump or his officially empowered representatives to transfer sovereignty over Greenland to the United States

Palestine is granted full United Nations Membership

Bashar Al-Assad is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

World Health Organization (WHO) declares a Chikungunya virus pandemic

United States Military personnel deaths greater than or equal to 15 in Israel borders during 2026

The Arctic Council is formally suspended or dissolved by unanimous vote

Any current G-20 member state ceases to be listed as a United Nations Member State

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in Canada

Argentina becomes a member of BRICS

United States formally declares war on Iran

Jordan becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major terrorist attack (50+ killed) occurs in United Kingdom

Saudi Arabia signs a written, mutual-defence pact with China or Russia

At least one nuclear explosive device is detonated with the intent to harm a state’s armed forces or civilian population

Iran becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Donald Trump is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Iran ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

Qatar becomes a signatory of the Abraham Accords

Major News sources consistently identify a conflict as WWIII

China invades Taiwan

Ukraine ceases to exist as a sovereign state

Israel conducts military operation in Cyprus

Kim Jong Un is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

Any United States of America state formally states intent to begin process to secede

Whole of Greenland becomes USA territory

Ukraine becomes a formal NATO member

Two states engage in a nuclear exchange (both attempt to deliver a nuclear device within the borders of the other)

Israel annexes 100% of Gaza

Armenia undergoes a regime change as the result of a military coup

Extraterrestrials making contact with earth is widely acknowledged

Any Canadian territory becomes part of US territory

Israel annexes any portion of Iran

Alberta begins process of becoming a USA state

Any US territory comes under Canadian administration

Israel ceases to exist as a sovereign nation

Humans will extinct

Yahya Sinwar is formally charged and tried for war crimes by an international tribunal or court with recognized jurisdiction (e.g., ICC)

YES

YES

YES

Paris Climate Agreement

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)

World Health Organization (WHO)

United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)

United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

World Trade Organization (WTO)

North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

International Labour Organization (ILO)

Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

World Bank

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

United Nations (UN)

YES

YES

YES

The WHO will say e-cigarettes are safer.

The WHO will respond to the question evasively.

The WHO will not exist in 2050.

The WHO will not take any position on the question in 2050.

Other

YES