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Prediction markets for World Labs

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.85%chance

8145087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

33264

2509

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.54%chance

8911423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3621

355

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

31.82%chance

288253

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14639

6831

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.89%chance

253805

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1088

922

Will the US or UK nationalize any frontier AI labs by 2035?

May 20, 2:41 PMJan 8, 7:59 AM

65.4%chance

423576

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1375

727

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

29%chance

171855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1567

640

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.71%chance

161055

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1374

730

In what year would the largest lab grown diamond surpass the worlds largest natural diamond?

Feb 19, 10:38 PMJan 27, 6:29 PM

2928

OptionProbability

2030

2035+

2033

2034

2031

2032

2028

2029

2027

2026

2025

2024

Other

21

11

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

5

4

3

0

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.78%chance

6671

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

822

Will Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?

May 27, 5:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.17%chance

3600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

689

Will the highest FIDE chess rating in the world be 2900 or greater on Labor Day 2029?

Dec 13, 3:14 PMSep 9, 3:59 AM

10.36%chance

5171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

28

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

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