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Prediction markets for World Labs

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.55%chance

8250361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

28550

2982

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.03%chance

9112035

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2562

536

Will any frontier lab be near-fully automated before 2029?

May 10, 6:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

298803

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15025

6656

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.07%chance

347402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1458

688

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

17.78%chance

276710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2154

466

6. Many more AI companies will begin building custom chips.

Dec 28, 11:29 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

90.5%chance

246554

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3092

324

What will the UK's Freedom House Freedom in the World score be for 2034 if the PM after the next GE is Labour?

Sep 17, 3:08 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

12827

OptionProbability

90 ≤ score ≤ 100

80 ≤ score < 90

70 ≤ score < 80

0 ≤ score < 10

10 ≤ score < 20

20 ≤ score < 30

30 ≤ score < 40

40 ≤ score < 50

50 ≤ score < 60

60 ≤ score < 70

53

36

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

In what year would the largest lab grown diamond surpass the worlds largest natural diamond?

Feb 19, 10:38 PMJan 27, 6:29 PM

2928

OptionProbability

2030

2035+

2033

2034

2031

2032

2028

2029

2027

2026

2025

2024

Other

21

11

9

9

8

8

7

7

6

5

4

3

0

What will the UK's V-Dem Regimes of the World classification be in 2034 if the PM after the next GE is Labour?

Sep 17, 12:02 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

1200

OptionProbability

Electoral democracy

Liberal democracy

Closed autocracy

Electoral autocracy

45

45

5

5

Will the highest FIDE chess rating in the world be 2900 or greater on Labor Day 2029?

Dec 13, 3:14 PMSep 9, 3:59 AM

10.36%chance

5171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

204

28

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

What will the UK's RSF World Press Freedom Index score be for 2034 if the PM after the next GE is Labour?

Sep 17, 3:07 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

1100

OptionProbability

70 ≤ score < 80

80 ≤ score < 90

90 ≤ score ≤ 100

60 ≤ score < 70

0 ≤ score < 10

10 ≤ score < 20

20 ≤ score < 30

30 ≤ score < 40

40 ≤ score < 50

50 ≤ score < 60

30

28

14

7

3

3

3

3

3

3

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