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Prediction markets for World Network
Prediction markets for World Network
Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Oct 20, 12:55 PM
Oct 20, 9:59 PM
13.46%
chance
31
7922
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2445
431
Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Apr 18, 7:05 AM
Oct 20, 9:59 PM
23.59%
chance
24
3409
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1350
843
[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will an AI system autonomously access restricted high-risk systems or data by end of 2045?
Dec 4, 3:33 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
60%
chance
5
805
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1225
816
Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?
Mar 24, 9:30 AM
Jan 1, 6:29 AM
59.37%
chance
15
591
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1123
765
China implements 30+ infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa by EOY 2027?
Nov 26, 3:39 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
73.13%
chance
7
220
Option
Votes
NO
YES
165
61
By 2030, one-shot learning allows AI to recognize new objects in diverse settings from a single image?
Jan 5, 10:51 AM
Dec 31, 8:00 AM
73.61%
chance
1
65
Option
Votes
NO
YES
84
30
If AI were the internet, what year would we be in with regards to progress and maturity
Feb 16, 11:53 PM
27
0
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