OptionVotes
YES
NO
10714
4099
OptionProbability
Stephen Grugett, Manifold and MNX
Tarek Mansour, Kalshi
Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi
Shayne Coplan, Polymarket
Michael S. Selig, Chairman of the CFTC
Terry Duffy, CME
92
70
46
27
12
10
Paris Climate Agreement
United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO)
World Health Organization (WHO)
United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC)
United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)
World Trade Organization (WTO)
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)
International Labour Organization (ILO)
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)
World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
World Bank
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
United Nations (UN)
International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO)
99
95
80
72
55
54
53
49
44
43
38
36
31
15
532
19
120
20
Apr '28: Bipedal robots meaningfully assist human tradespeople in their work
Dec '28: AI systems able to autonomously design their successors (RSI)
Nov '26: AI good enough at biology to both advance science and potentially proliferate bioweapon risks
Nov '27: Autonomous companies exist and generate $10m+ revenues
Apr '27: A team of humans collaborating with AI will make a Nobel-winning discovery
47
45
116
37