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Top stories

Office for U.S. Pandemic Policy and Response Emptied, Raising Concerns Over Institutional Knowledge Loss and Biosecurity Amid HHS Policy Shifts

US Domestic Policy

Office for U.S. Pandemic Policy and Response Emptied, Raising Concerns Over Institutional Knowledge Loss and Biosecurity Amid HHS Policy Shifts

Authors

5

6 days ago

Prediction markets for World War II

U.S. federal government announces delay or suspension of 2026 midterm elections before November 3, 2026

Feb 4, 2:18 AMNov 2, 12:00 AM

3.01%chance

2721228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17904

2052

US nukes Iran in 2025?

Jun 20, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.15%chance

298492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6746

148

Will Poland get any WW2 reparations from Germany before end of 2025?

Sep 16, 6:58 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3%chance

415737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3575

792

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?

Jun 10, 4:08 PMJan 2, 3:59 PM

11.6%chance

324675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2761

362

Will a World War II veteran live to see AGI?

May 27, 4:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

14.19%chance

444056

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2312

554

2030: Will the World War III be named to start in 2023?

Oct 12, 10:23 PMJan 31, 10:59 PM

4.06%chance

211786

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1757

928

Will the current Italian government last for the entire term of office?

Sep 4, 6:15 PMOct 22, 9:59 PM

26.31%chance

241090

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

967

Chinese military parade on September 3, 2025, features marching humanoid robots

Jul 25, 5:57 PMSep 4, 11:59 PM

29.31%chance

151086

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1553

644

When will World War III happen?

Apr 25, 10:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10834

Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?

May 23, 4:15 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6693

OptionProbability

Not on NATO area/Not at all

Finland

Other

Estonia

Lithuania

Latvia

79

7

6

3

3

3

Will the last living World War II veteran be from the Axis rather than the allies?

May 27, 4:37 PMJun 29, 6:59 AM

41%chance

12441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

975

Will China turn on Russia before 2030?

Jan 13, 4:38 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

21%chance

8360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

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