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Prediction markets for Worldcoin

What will be the dominant unit of economic power used by humans in 2040?

Nov 4, 4:21 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

7139573

OptionProbability

US Dollar (USD)*

Chinese Renminbi (CNY)*

Euro (EUR)*

Bitcoin (BTC)*

Unit of Computation (FLOP/IOP, etc.)

Energy-based Unit (Joule/Wh, etc.)

Ethereum (ETH)*

Gold (Au)

Reputation-based Currency (e.g., Whuffie points)

Emission-Linked Financial Instrument (e.g., carbon coin)

Worldcoin (WLD)*

Paperclips

Utilitarian Value-based Currency (DALY, QALY, dead children, etc.)

TRUMP

Manifold Mana

57

32

24

8

8

8

7

6

6

6

5

4

4

4

2

Will I consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?

Jul 27, 3:26 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

58.92%chance

684764

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1205

824

Will Worldcoin report a billion user signups before 2026

Jun 8, 2:49 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

4.43%chance

273815

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2620

831

When will OpenAI accept Worldcoin?

Sep 29, 3:50 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

132535

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2027

Before 2026

Before 2025

48

39

36

0

Will Worldcoin hit 100$ and if yes when will it happen ?

Dec 17, 7:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

192434

OptionProbability

No never

Yes by 2030

Yes by 2028

Yes by 2025

68

43

41

1

When will Worldcoin orbs become operational in Porto Velho, Brazil?

Oct 26, 6:40 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

62183

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2026

50

4

When will Worldcoin's monthly payout exceed Brazil's minimum wage?

Sep 30, 9:06 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

6953

OptionProbability

Before 2030

Before 2027

Before 2026

Before 2025

24

16

6

0

Will worldcoin manage to get 2 billion people to scan their eyeballs by the end of 2030?

Jul 31, 10:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.6%chance

12878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1410

918

If I get verified on WorldCoin by the end of 2024, will I have found it worthwhile by the end of 2025?

Jul 24, 9:13 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

10.3%chance

10415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

409

110

Proof of Personhood SDK stock

Apr 8, 8:05 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

21351

OptionProbability

NO

YES

416

404

Will there be a referendum of Worldcoin-verified voters about a global ban on frontier AI/AGI development before 2026?

Mar 14, 3:43 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

32.59%chance

455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

235

143

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