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Prediction markets for Worldwide Marketing

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

Sep 1, 3:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

44%chance

20484293171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14023

7259

Humanity's Last Exam score in 2025?

Feb 28, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7458937

Will a judge throw out X vs. GARM?

Aug 8, 5:50 AMDec 31, 4:59 PM

50.46%chance

7635026

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10102

9898

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

26.53%chance

1418546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1664

601

Which companies will be in the top 10 worldwide by market cap at the end of 2025?

Jun 22, 7:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

337025

OptionProbability

Apple

Microsoft

Amazon

NVIDIA

Alphabet (Google)

Meta Platforms (Facebook)

Saudi Aramco

TSMC

Broadcom

Berkshire Hathaway

Tesla

Walmart

Eli Lilly

JPMorgan Chase

Visa

Novo Nordisk

United Health

98

98

97

97

95

92

91

75

65

58

55

24

23

22

15

5

3

If 2024 YR4 is on a collision course with Earth, will it be successfully deflected?

Feb 5, 1:10 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

47.11%chance

243219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

944

Will there be a nuclear strike on a civilian or military target by 2030?

Nov 20, 1:09 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.01%chance

312800

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1564

639

Will the percentage of philosophers identifying as religious in the next PhilPapers Survey decrease?

Apr 13, 3:53 AMMar 16, 10:59 AM

81.79%chance

421351

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1416

840

Will consumer electricity be too cheap to meter by 2100?

Feb 23, 2:49 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.69%chance

17941

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1014

791

Will more than 0.001% of the world population be incarcerated in 2070?

Jan 2, 4:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

68.06%chance

12522

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

989

Will the iPhone market share drop below 20% worldwide in the next 10 years?

Jan 17, 10:25 AMJan 17, 10:59 PM

27.48%chance

12367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

958

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

949

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