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Prediction markets for Worthe

Will Manifold ever be worth $1B?

Apr 24, 4:23 AMDec 31, 7:59 AM

10%chance

143331308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3668

2233

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion by Jan 1st, 2029?

Dec 17, 9:13 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

31.08%chance

165276748

OptionVotes

YES

NO

148590

67483

Will Elon Musk be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?

Sep 20, 7:29 PMJun 29, 3:59 AM

54.37%chance

7645174

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

1080

[Metaculus] Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026?

Jan 30, 11:22 AMJan 2, 11:00 AM

13.92%chance

12213434

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2360

878

Will Jim Fund's assets be worth more than $20,000,000 on Jan1'29

Nov 18, 5:55 AMNov 7, 10:59 AM

20.01%chance

410012

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15091

101

Is Aella worth more than 1 million dollars?

Oct 26, 7:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.41%chance

528613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2419

413

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.44%chance

473985

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

695

If Manifold runs a hiring-decision market in the next ~year, will they think it's worth doing multiple more times?

Sep 24, 11:52 PMOct 2, 6:59 AM

45.19%chance

252473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1498

1335

Will Michael Saylor be worth more than $1 Trillion during his lifetime?

Mar 4, 7:47 PMFeb 5, 4:59 AM

17.84%chance

182443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1216

911

Will Extropic be worth $1 Billion before 2030? 🦄

Apr 28, 7:06 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.58%chance

202384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

513

What do you predict Sam Bankman-Fried's net worth will be on Nov 16, 2025? (i.e., ~3 years from the FTX crises)

Nov 16, 3:29 PMOct 15, 3:59 AM

48%chance

201863

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1347

750

Will my Agile Space Industries options be worth something?

Apr 6, 7:41 PMApr 2, 5:59 AM

63.02%chance

5540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2308

1435

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