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Prediction markets for WRI

Will an AI model write the proof to the Riemann Hypothesis by the end of 2025?

Sep 14, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2%chance

171138197

OptionVotes

YES

NO

76985

2163

Will AI convincingly mimic Scott Alexander's writing in style, depth, and insight before 2026?

Mar 18, 6:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.47%chance

335126206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6451

596

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

Feb 20, 10:53 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65%chance

21156696

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2414

976

Will Meta have a "mid-level" AI engineer that can write code by the end of 2025?

Jan 13, 7:06 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

15.68%chance

7147255

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22945

4656

In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?

Feb 3, 4:31 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80%chance

10712835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3243

555

Will 5%+ of writers and designers lose their jobs by 2025?

May 12, 9:26 AMApr 1, 3:59 PM

42%chance

422978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1394

1107

Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?

Aug 31, 7:40 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

57.53%chance

391946

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

674

Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?

May 16, 2:34 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.19%chance

251716

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

654

GPT-4 #1: Conditional on being able to use a REPL, will GPT-4 be able to be prompted to write naively malicious code?

Nov 15, 6:21 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.66%chance

321555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1225

592

Will Patrick Rothfuss finish writing the third book of the Kingkiller Chronicles by 2030?

Feb 12, 11:12 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

54.65%chance

211009

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1363

425

Will Substack use LLMs to help you write posts???

Dec 1, 3:52 PMDec 2, 4:59 AM

35%chance

9707

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

734

Will there be an academic paper written on the total effect of microplastics on human IQ loss by 2026? (in the same way there are papers written on organophosphate pesticides and air pollution on human IQ loss)?

Jan 7, 7:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.98%chance

13533

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

481

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